GEIS SS 100114 Part B

SUPPORTING STATEMENT

GULF OF ALASKA ECOSYSTEM INDICATOR SURVEY

OMB CONTROL NO. 0648-XXXX

B. COLLECTIONS OF INFORMATION EMPLOYING STATISTICAL METHODS

1. Describe (including a numerical estimate) the potential respondent universe and any sampling or other respondent selection method to be used. Data on the number of entities (e.g., establishments, State and local governmental units, households, or persons) in the universe and the corresponding sample are to be provided in tabular form. The tabulation must also include expected response rates for the collection as a whole. If the collection has been conducted before, provide the actual response rate achieved.

The survey is designed for 100 respondents. Respondents will not be selected at random, but will be selected based on their known Gulf of Alaska (GOA) ecosystem expertise. This number substantially expands, by 5 times, our previous efforts, non-survey based, for other ecosystems. The survey will be disseminated directly to scientists and ecosystem managers, and others with ecosystem expertise. In addition, the survey will be disseminated to North Pacific Fisheries Council staff and committee chairs to distribute to those with expertise through commercial fishing and other industry-related expertise. We are not attempting to census all people with GOA knowledge, but simply expand the input, as requested, into the selection of indicators. The results will not be interpreted as a sample in the sense that they represent more than the opinions of the respondents. In other words, results will not be extrapolated out to a greater population, but reflect only the opinion of the known respondents. The estimated response rate is 60-80% based on an informal query of scientists within our program.

Table 1

Estimated Respondents	Estimated Numbers to be Targeted	Expected response rate %	Estimated Reponses based on average of 70% response rate
Non-federal scientists	20	60-80	14
Not For Profit	10	60-80	7
Commercial fishing industry	50	60-80	35
University	20	60-80	14
Totals	100		70

2. Describe the procedures for the collection, including: the statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection; the estimation procedure; the degree of accuracy needed for the purpose described in the justification; any unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures; and any use of periodic (less frequent than annual) data collection cycles to reduce burden.

The survey results will expand the reach of our previous ecosystem Report Card development projects. We expect to use the top ranked ecosystem indicators as identified by the survey respondents as candidate indicators for the GOA Ecosystem Report Card. Rankings will range from most often selected to least often selected and thus not require more than standard accuracy in reporting. Standard summary statistics will be calculated on the responses. Indicator selection summaries may be stratified by respondent expertise so as to weigh consideration of top indicators more heavily by those with expertise in each indicator category. The preliminary rankings will be reviewed by the Resource Ecology and Ecosystem Modeling program at the AFSC. Formal review of the Report Card and Assessment that is developed from the indicator selection survey will be provided by the North Pacific Fisheries Management Council.

Data collection is planned for only one time in 2014.

3. Describe the methods used to maximize response rates and to deal with nonresponse. The accuracy and reliability of the information collected must be shown to be adequate for the intended uses. For collections based on sampling, a special justification must be provided if they will not yield "reliable" data that can be generalized to the universe studied.

The survey has been designed to be quick and simple in order to maximize response, using methods described in Dillman 2007.In the unlikely event of complete non-response, the Report Card will be developed in house, but will lack broad input from non-federal employees. Any responses will broaden the expertise and strengthen the justification for indicator selection, which was a request of the reviewing body of the North Pacific Fisheries Management Council. The extent and make-up of the survey respondents will be described in the final product and available for review by the North Pacific Fisheries Management Council. Any input from survey results that we receive will be evaluated and incorporated into the final indicator selection process, so an inadequate response rate is not a concern.

Respondents will be notified of the survey with an email letter sent directly to respondents or to Council staff to forward to respondents. We will request that Council staff provide a list of names to whom they forward the letter.

Reminder emails will be sent out 2 weeks after the initial email to those individuals who have not responded.

4. Describe any tests of procedures or methods to be undertaken. Tests are encouraged as effective means to refine collections, but if ten or more test respondents are involved OMB must give prior approval.

This is the first time that a survey of the public will have been conducted for this project. In previous in-person efforts to create ecosystem report cards for the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, we concluded that more input representing a broader range of ecosystem expertise can influence indicator selection. This conclusion motivated the creation of an online survey to facilitate more peoples’ input into indicator selection without requiring travel or extensive time and facilities to host much larger meetings.

5. Provide the name and telephone number of individuals consulted on the statistical aspects of the design, and the name of the agency unit, contractor(s), grantee(s), or other person(s) who will actually collect and/or analyze the information for the agency.

Alaska Fisheries Science Center

Resource Ecology and Fisheries Management Division

Resource Ecology and Ecosystem Monitoring Program

Stephani Zador 206-526-4693

Stephani Zador will collect and analyze the survey responses. These data will then be available for further analysis in the development of the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem report card by the Science Center staff.