1028-New SS-B Climate Waterfowl 2016-07-26

Supporting Statement B

assessment of effects of climate on waterfowl

OMB Control Number 1028-New

Collections of Information Employing Statistical Methods

The agency should be prepared to justify its decision not to use statistical methods in any case where such methods might reduce burden or improve accuracy of results. When the question “Does this ICR contain surveys, censuses, or employ statistical methods?” is checked "Yes," the following documentation should be included in Supporting Statement B to the extent that it applies to the methods proposed:

1. Describe (including a numerical estimate) the potential respondent universe and any sampling or other respondent selection method to be used. Data on the number of entities (e.g., establishments, State and local government units, households, or persons) in the universe covered by the collection and in the corresponding sample are to be provided in tabular form for the universe as a whole and for each of the strata in the proposed sample. Indicate expected response rates for the collection as a whole. If the collection had been conducted previously, include the actual response rate achieved during the last collection.

The potential respondent universe is approximately 250 individuals and is composed of professional waterfowl researchers and managers who, as author or co-author, have published papers or given professional presentations at national scientific conferences and symposia in the United States that dealt with the construction, validation, and results of continental-scale population models for waterfowl. This universe constitutes a single stratum and encompasses the waterfowl professionals most qualified to answer our survey questions.

Entities	Potential number of respondents
State and Local government	125
Private	125

The overall response rate is expected to be approximately 85%. This survey has not been conducted previously but the Project Lead has substantial experience with large scale surveys and had achieved response rates ranging 85-93% by using a rigorous program of personalized follow-up (Griffith et al., 1989, Science 245:477-480).

2. Describe the procedures for the collection of information including:

* Statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection,

* Estimation procedure,

* Degree of accuracy needed for the purpose described in the justification,

* Unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures, and

* Any use of periodic (less frequent than annual) data collection cycles to reduce burden.

There was no statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection. The sampling universe is composed of professional waterfowl researchers and managers who, as author or co-author, have published papers or given professional presentations at national scientific conferences and symposia in the United States that dealt with the construction, validation, and results of continental-scale population models for waterfowl. We intend to obtain a near complete census of this group of waterfowl professionals most qualified to answer our survey questions.

There will be no estimation. Results will be simple tabulation of the frequency of responses to each of our questions presented as histograms. Only opinions, not facts, will be collected and complex statistical analyses are not warranted for opinions. Accuracy is assumed for the individual opinions presented. This level of summarization is sufficient to characterize the opinions of the community of practice of professional waterfowl researchers and managers who have been motivated to publish or present at national level conferences and symposia.

No specialized sampling procedures are required.

This will be a one-time survey and thus minimize burden on the community of practice.

3. Describe methods to maximize response rates and to deal with issues of non-response. The accuracy and reliability of information collected must be shown to be adequate for intended uses. For collections based on sampling, a special justification must be provided for any collection that will not yield "reliable" data that can be generalized to the universe studied.

Response rates will be maximized by an organized and formalized follow-up protocol that will include automatic reminders from Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey will send out a first reminder at 2 weeks after the instrument delivery and at weekly intervals for 4 weeks thereafter for a maximum of five reminders.  The survey will be closed two months after initiation. Personalized supplemental emails requesting the completion of the survey and, in exceptional circumstances, phone calls to work office phones of potential responders will ensure a high response rate.

4. Describe any tests of procedures or methods to be undertaken. Testing is encouraged as an effective means of refining collections of information to minimize burden and improve utility. Tests must be approved if they call for answers to identical questions from 10 or more respondents. A proposed test or set of tests may be submitted for approval separately or in combination with the main collection of information.

No formal tests of procedures were conducted nor are any planned. A draft of the survey was sent to four entities, as noted in the SS-A for this project, for comments and suggestions and these comments were incorporated into a final revised survey that was substantially shorter and more focused than the original draft.

5. Provide the names and telephone numbers of individuals consulted on statistical aspects of the design and the name of the agency unit, contractor(s), grantee(s), or other person(s) who will actually collect and/or analyze the information for the agency.

Statistical consultation:

Dr. Jay Ver Hoef, National Marine Mammal Laboratory, NOAA-NMFS Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 907-456-1995.

Collection and analysis:

Dr. Brad Griffith, Leader

USGS Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit

209C Irving I Building

University of Alaska Fairbanks

Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA

Office 907-474-5067

Cell 907-460-4749

[OMB-OIRA has produced a number of documents that may serve as useful reference material for completing Supporting Statement B. These can be found at:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy]

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