Attachment H - Propensity Models for Performer and Funder Stratification

Attachment H
Propensity Models for Performer and Funder Stratification

Propensity Models for Performer and Funder Stratification
The performer and funder density strata are determined by estimating the propensity that an
organization is performing and/or funding research. The dependent variable for the model is a
binary measure of whether the organization is a likely performer and/or likely funder, 1 = the
organization is identified as a likely performer/funder, 0 otherwise.) Refer to Attachment F. Likely
Performer and Funder Sources for the construction of the likely performer and funder flags.
We estimated two models, one based on organizations filing Form-990, 109,798 organizations
(1,526 likely performers or funders); and one based on organizations filing Form 990-PF, 18,097
(615 likely performers or funders). Hospitals were excluded from the modeling because they will
be a separate stratum and will require steps to deduplicate the frame so as not to overlap with those
that are eligible for the Higher Education Research and Development survey (HERD).
For both the Form-990 and Form 990-PF models, we followed the same modeling process:
1) Developed a base model with the classification variables available on the core file and
three major financial variables, total revenues, total assets, and gross receipts.
Base model:
Major NTEE Grouping (First Character)
NAICS code Major Sectors (First 2 digits)
Common Code (last 2 digits of NTEE)
Foundation Code
Gross receipts
Total Revenues
Total Assets
2) Calculated the individual effects of the financial variables by introducing to the base
model one at a time. For each financial variable, evaluated the continuous value (e.g. total
investment income), as well as a binary measure reporting a non-zero value for this
variable (e.g., 1 = positive net investment income; 0 = nonpositive net investment
income).
3) Made all individual effects significant at 0.05 eligible for the final model building.
4) Tested for multicollinearity—removed highly correlated variables or created variations of
the variable. For example, program revenue is highly correlated with total revenues so we
created a variable to represent the percent of program revenue (program revenue / total
revenue).
5) Used stepwise selection to select final variables for model.

H-1

The significant model effects for the Form 990 and Form 990-PF models are presented below.
Form 990—Final Model
Variable
NTEE major group
NAICS
NTEE Common code
Reason for 501(c)(3) status
Non-Private Foundation Reason Code
Compensation for officers
Has positive revenue from sales of securities (0, 1)
Has positive royalty income (0,1)
Has positive compensation for officers (0,1)
Total gross receipts from related activities etc.: 170(b)(1)(A)(iv)+(vi)
Has positive net income from special events and activities (0,1)
Total gross income from interest etc.: 170(b)(1)(A)(iv)+(vi)
Income from investment of tax-exempt bond proceeds
Has positive retained earnings (0, 1)
Has positive gross receipts from related activities etc.:
170(b)(1)(A)(iv)+(vi) (0,1)
Has positive investment income (0,1)
Has positive contributions from gifts and grants (0,1)
Gross income from fundraising events
Has positive tax exempt bond liabilities, end of year (0, 1)
Has positive liabilities, end of year (0,1)
Has positive gross income from fundraising events (0,1)

DF
17
10
7
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

WaldChiSq
713.59
123.95
111.11
155.48
42.07
108.44
114.38
70.41
62.33
10.55
19.56
21.73
9.00
21.31

ProbChiSq
<.0001
<.0001
<.0001
<.0001
<.0001
<.0001
<.0001
<.0001
<.0001
0.0012
<.0001
<.0001
0.0027
<.0001

1

24.15

<.0001

1
1
1
1
1
1

19.69
17.29
23.37
19.12
14.46
10.97

<.0001
<.0001
<.0001
<.0001
0.0001
0.0009

Notes: 170(b)(1)(A)(iv) an organization which normally receives a substantial part of its support (exclusive of
income received in the exercise or performance by such organization of its charitable, educational, or other purpose
or function constituting the basis for its exemption under section 501(a) from the United States or any state or
political subdivision thereof or from direct or indirect contributions from the general public, and which is organized
and operated exclusively to receive, hold, invest, and administer property and to make expenditures to or for the
benefit of a college or university which is an organization referred to in clause (ii) of this subparagraph and which is
an agency or instrumentality of a state or political subdivision thereof, or which is owned or operated by a state or
political subdivision thereof or by an agency or instrumentality of one or more States or political subdivisions.

H-2

Form 990-PF—Final Model
Variable
NTEE major group
NAICS
Compensation of officers, directors, trustees, etc.
Paid compensation to or reimbursed expenses of disqualified
person (0,1)
Provided a grant to an organization other than charity (0,1)
Has positive compensation for officers (0,1)
Furnished goods, services, or facilities to a disqualified person (0,1)
Has positive other income (0,1)
Has positive contributions, gifts, grants paid as per books (0,1)
Has positive cash - non-interest-bearing, book value end of year
(0,1)
Has positive total disbursements for charitable purposes operating
and administrative expenses (0,1)
Has positive interest on savings and temporary cash investments
(0,1)
Ratio of total fair market value of assets not for charitable
purposes to total assets
Has positive tax overpayment to be credited to subsequent year
(0,1)
Has positive total liabilities, book value end of year (0,1)
Total excise tax based on investment income
Has positive investments - corporate bonds, book value end of year
(0,1)
Has positive net investment income (0,1)
Has positive assets alternative test (last 4 years) (0,1)
Provided a grant to an individual for travel, study, or other similar
purposes (0,1)
Has positive investments - other, book value end of year (0,1)
Has positive total investment operating and administrative
expenses (0,1)
Investments - U.S. and state government obligations, book value
end of year

H-3

DF
12
4
1

WaldChiSq
29.85
14.38
56.58

ProbChiSq
0.0029
0.0062
<.0001

1

12.88

0.0003

1
1
1
1
1

14.69
30.33
15.39
13.13
10.98

0.0001
<.0001
<.0001
0.0003
0.0009

1

13.07

0.0003

1

17.93

<.0001

1

7.46

0.0063

1

9.92

0.0016

1

7.79

0.0053

1
1

7.99
5.38

0.0047
0.0204

1

6.70

0.0096

1
1

5.40
6.78

0.0202
0.0092

1

5.77

0.0163

1

4.84

0.0278

1

10.59

0.0011

1

8.38

0.0038