HES Part A Final Submission_OIRAX

Supporting Statement A

Hurricane Evacuation Studies

OMB Control Number XXXX-XXXX

Justification

1. Explain the circumstances that make the collection of information necessary. Identify any legal or administrative requirements that necessitate the collection.

Information from the questionnaire items for the collection of planning data is needed to support the development of Hurricane Evacuation Studies (HES). HES provide key inputs to support Federal, State, and Local Government hurricane response planning. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates within a partnership, known as the National Hurricane Program (NHP), with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to conduct HES studies for coastal risk areas. FEMA is mandated by the Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act (PKEMRA, Section 632), to “provide evacuation preparedness technical assistance to state, local, and tribal governments, including the preparation of hurricane evacuation studies and technical assistance in developing evacuation plans, assessing storm surge estimates, evacuation zones, evacuation clearance times, transportation capacity, and shelter capacity.” USACE participation is authorized by Section 206 of the Flood Control Act of 1960, which is the authority for the Floodplain Management Services Program. The information collected from the public provides critical information on public evacuation behavior that supports shelter planning, the calculation of evacuation clearance times in the HES, and public outreach/education efforts. The evacuation clearance times provide the timeline used by State/Local governments to know when an evacuation decision would need to be made in order to evacuate the at-risk population safely.

2. Indicate how, by whom, and for what purpose the information is to be used.

The information collections are either conducted by the USACE or by Social Science subject matter experts under contract to the USACE. The information collections are typically conducted via telephone calls made to addresses within or near hurricane evacuation zones identified in the HES process. Mail and on-site surveys have also been used in areas where deemed to be the more effective approach, based on input from the social scientist/subject matter expert.

The information collected is used in multiple ways. The information on how people say they would or would not evacuate in various hurricane scenarios and evacuation orders, along with where they would go if they evacuated, if they would go to a public shelter, what routes they would take to get to their destination, how many vehicles their family would take, etc., feeds directly into the shelter and transportation analysis phases of the HES. The information supports shelter planning by allowing forecasting of potential shelter demand in different hurricane scenarios. The information supports the calculation of evacuation clearance times by providing a forecast of how many vehicles are likely to be on different evacuation routes in different hurricane and evacuation scenarios and what likely evacuation destinations/endpoints are.

The information is also used to support State and Local hurricane response planning and public outreach/education campaigns. Information on how people respond to questions about their perceived risk to different types of hurricane hazards, their understanding of the hurricane threat, how they make personal evacuation decisions, and what media they use to get hurricane information, supports decisions on how to best effectively communicate hurricane risk, evacuation zones, and evacuation plans and procedures to residents.

3. Describe whether, and to what extent, the collection of information involves the use of automated, electronic, mechanical, or other technological collection techniques or other forms of information technology, e.g., permitting electronic submission of responses, and the basis for the decision for adopting this means of collection. Also describe any consideration of using information technology to reduce burden and specifically how this collection meets GPEA requirements.

Survey data collection will primarily be through telephone calls to addresses in or near hurricane evacuation zones. This is generally the method recommended by Social Science subject matter experts for this type of collection. Survey administrators use specialized software to record responses for better quality control and assurance, and to provide for efficient tabulation of the results. Mail surveys may be used to maximize response in areas where Social Scientist subject matter experts feel mail is the most effective method.

4. Describe efforts to identify duplication. Show specifically why any similar information already available cannot be used or modified for use for the purposes described in Item 2 above.

This effort does not duplicate any other known survey being done by Federal agencies. No other Federal agency systematically collects information on hurricane evacuation intent for the purpose of supporting State/Local hurricane evacuation planning and decision making.

5. If the collection of information impacts small businesses or other small entities, describe any methods used to minimize burden.

Small businesses are not typically included in the collection. Only phone numbers registered to residential addresses are usually contacted. However if small businesses are included in a collection, the burden on such establishments is alleviated by such actions as: 1) pre-survey contacts to determine the most advantageous time such surveys can be conducted; 2) provision of pre-survey materials to inform the entities what information will be needed to expedite the survey process; and 3) assistance from experienced and trained staff to complete necessary questionnaires.

6. Describe the consequence to Federal program or policy activities if the collection is not conducted or is conducted less frequently, as well as any technical or legal obstacles to reducing burden.

If the needed information could not be collected for these occasions, the accuracy of HES results and the ability to support State/Local hurricane planning and decision making would be compromised. Educated guesses, at best, would have to be used to make assumptions about public evacuation behavior that would be fed into the shelter and transportation phases of the HES. The process of communicating hurricane risk, evacuation zones, and evacuation plans and procedures to residents effectively would be more difficult. As the ultimate goal of the HES, and hurricane planning in general, is to protect life safety, the lack of this information could have significant consequences.

7. Explain any special circumstances that would cause an information collection to be conducted in a manner:

a. requiring respondents to report information to the agency more often than quarterly;

b. requiring respondents to prepare a written response to a collection of information in fewer than 30 days after receipt of it;

c. requiring respondents to submit more than an original and two copies of any document;

d. requiring respondents to retain records, other than health, medical, government contract, grant-in-aid, or tax records, for more than three years;

e. in connection with a statistical survey that is not designed to produce valid and reliable results that can be generalized to the universe of study;

f. requiring the use of a statistical data classification that has not been reviewed and approved by OMB;

g. that includes a pledge of confidentiality that is not supported by authority established in statute or regulation, that is not supported by disclosure and data security policies that are consistent with the pledge, or which unnecessarily impedes sharing of data with other agencies for compatible confidential use; or

h. requiring respondents to submit proprietary trade secrets, or other confidential information, unless the agency can demonstrate that it has instituted procedures to protect the information's confidentiality to the extent permitted by law.

This request contains no special circumstances with respect to 5 CFR 1320.5 (2) for any of the above.

8. If applicable, provide a copy and identify the date and page number of publication in the Federal Register of the agency's notice, required by 5 CFR 1320.8(d), soliciting comments on the information collection prior to submission to OMB. Summarize public comments received in response to that notice and in response to the PRA statement associated with the collection over the past three years, and describe actions taken by the agency in response to these comments. Specifically address comments received on cost and hour burden.

The comment solicitation was posted to the Federal Register on May 5, 2015 by the Department of Army and was available for public comment for 60 days. No comments were received.

9. Explain any decision to provide any payment or gift to respondents, other than remuneration of contractors or grantees.

Incentives, remuneration, and gifts are generally deemed inappropriate as part of plans for information collections conducted within the scope of USACE sponsored surveys. No gifts or payments will be made to any survey respondents.

10. Describe any assurance of confidentiality provided to respondents and the basis for that assurance in statute, regulation, or agency policy.

No personally identifiable information will be collected as part of this survey.

11. Provide additional justification for any questions of a sensitive nature, such as sexual behavior and attitudes, religious beliefs, and other matters that are commonly considered private. This justification should include the reasons why the agency considers the questions necessary, the specific uses to be made of the information, the explanation to be given to persons from whom the information is requested, and any steps to be taken to obtain their consent.

The questions used in these surveys will not be of a sensitive nature.

12. Provide estimates of the hour burden of the collection of information. The statement should:

Indicate the number of respondents, frequency of response, annual hour burden, and an explanation of how the burden was estimated. Unless directed to do so, agencies should not conduct special surveys to obtain information on which to base hour burden estimates. Consultation with a sample (fewer than 10) of potential respondents is desirable. If the hour burden on respondents is expected to vary widely because of differences in activity, size, or complexity, show the range of estimated hour burden, and explain the reasons for the variance. Generally, estimates should not include burden hours for customary and usual business practices.

If this request for approval covers more than one form, provide separate hour burden estimates for each form and aggregate the hour burdens.

Provide estimates of annualized cost to respondents for the hour burdens for collections of information, identifying and using appropriate wage rate categories. The cost of contracting out or paying outside parties for information collection activities should not be included here. Instead, this cost should be included under “Annual Cost to Federal Government.”

Based on experience with the existing Programmatic Clearance, we estimate that there will be approximately 6,000 annual responses. Please see the table below for the estimated annual respondent burden for this collection. Given these estimates, the Corps of Engineers anticipates a budget of 1500 hours per year for these proposed collections.

• We estimate the total dollar value of the annual burden hours for this collection to be $47,895. We arrived at this figure by multiplying the estimated burden hours by $31.93 valuation of volunteer time and the projected burden hours, an approximate aggregate annual cost to This wage figure included the multiplier for benefits and is based on the National Compensation Survey: Occupational Wages in the United States published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupation and Wages for average full compensation for private industry, (hour costs based on BLS news release USDL-11-849 for Employer Costs for Employee Compensation—June 8, 2011 at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.htm, dated June 2014).

CORPS OF ENGINEERS HURRICANE EVACUATION BEHAVIOR SURVEYS PUBLIC HOUR AND COST BURDEN
	Minutes/ Survey	Surveys/ Year	Burden Hours	Public Burden Costs
HURRICANE EVACUATION BEHAVIOR SURVEYS	15	6000	1500	$47,895.00

13. Provide an estimate of the total annual non-hour cost burden to respondents or record keepers resulting from the collection of information. (Do not include the cost of any hour burden already reflected in item 12.)

This data collection effort requires no additional record keeping or time commitment on the part of the population being surveyed then what is required in the estimated time to complete the questionnaires.

14. Provide estimates of annualized cost to the Federal government. Also, provide a description of the method used to estimate cost, which should include quantification of hours, operational expenses (such as equipment, overhead, printing, and support staff), and any other expense that would not have been incurred without this collection of information.

The Federal program staff will support the development of the questionnaire, the survey report, coordination with State/Local governments in the survey area, and the contracting of the survey execution to a private Social Science subject matter expert, if applicable. Federal program staff may also execute the survey in some cases . An estimation of annualized cost includes the support time for Federal staff labor as well as the cost of executing the survey. We have assumed a ratio of thirty minutes of Federal work for each hour of survey time, with the Federal work at an average pay level of GS-12 step 5, which is $33.39 per hour based on OPM Salary Table 2015-GS. Using a multiplier of 1.5 [as implied by the previously referenced BLS news release] to add benefits, the full compensation cost would be $50.08 per hour. Thus, the annual labor cost to the federal government is $37,563.75. An additional $300,000.00 of cost for survey execution brings the annualized cost total to $337,563.75.

Survey Administration Costs to the Government Hurricane Evacuation Behavior Surveys
	Minutes/Survey	Surveys/ Year	Portion of Hour	Public Burden Hours	Total Labor Hours, Including Contracting costs	Labor Costs	Contract	Equipment & Materials	Cost to Government
HURRICANE EVACUTION BEHAVIOR SURVEYS	15	6000	0.5	1500	750	$37,563.75	$300,000	0	$337,563.75

15. Explain the reasons for any program changes or adjustments in hour or cost burden.

No programmatic changes have occurred that would require a major change in the annual burden hours. The number of required burden hours for hurricane evacuation behavior surveys has not increased.

16. For collections of information whose results will be published, outline plans for tabulation and publication. Address any complex analytical techniques that will be used. Provide the time schedule for the entire project, including beginning and ending dates of the collection of information, completion of report, publication dates, and other actions.

The data collection results are used to support the shelter analysis and transportation analysis of the HES process, through providing information on the percentage of people likely to evacuate in different hurricane scenarios, evacuation orders, where they would go, if they would go to a shelter, what roads they would take, how many vehicles, etc. Results are also tabulated within a report that summarizes the overall responses to each question, but does not provide the responses from each individual survey response. The reports are used as an internal reference for the Federal Government but also provided to State/Local governments to support hurricane response planning efforts, and programs to communicate evacuation zones, evacuation plans/procedures, and information on hurricane risk to residents.

Most analyses of surveys conducted under this program will involve simple tabulations to address information needed for planning and estimations of evacuation clearance times. These include response frequencies, confidence intervals, breakdowns of the overall responses to each question, and some cross-tabulation.

17. If seeking approval to not display the expiration date for OMB approval of the information collection, explain the reasons that display would be inappropriate.

We will display the OMB approval number and expiration date on the information collection instruments.

18. Explain each exception to the topics of the certification statement identified in "Certification for Paperwork Reduction Act Submissions."

No administrative exemptions are required for this survey package.

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