Rip Current SS Part B 101416

SUPPORTING STATEMENT

Rip Current Visualization Survey and Focus Groups

OMB CONTROL NO. 0648-xxxx

B. COLLECTIONS OF INFORMATION EMPLOYING STATISTICAL METHODS

1. Describe (including a numerical estimate) the potential respondent universe and any sampling or other respondent selection method to be used. Data on the number of entities (e.g. establishments, State and local governmental units, households, or persons) in the universe and the corresponding sample are to be provided in tabular form. The tabulation must also include expected response rates for the collection as a whole. If the collection has been conducted before, provide the actual response rate achieved.

For dissemination, the ECS Team will provide the web-based survey’s link to NWS so that it is posted on various websites such as the Rip Current Safety, Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Morehead City, and U.S. Lifesaving Association. In addition, the survey will be promoted widely in North Carolina through other outlets such as local weather channels via broadcast meteorologists and their social media accounts, regional interest groups (e.g. surfer and beach) and their social media accounts, and working with the emergency manager points of contacts to utilize their local contacts and list serves. Surfers/bodysurfers, swimmers, kitesurfers, and paddlers will be sought out on social media (e.g., Facebook and Twitter), using a variety of pages (NC Coastal Atlas, NC Sea Grant, SwellInfo, Surfline, and SurfChex), and a network of beach webcams with sponsored advertising. These sites will be asked to share the web survey on beach user profiles and members of the public could then provide feedback. With the wide distribution, the target number of responses is 300-500 for the public survey.

Each of the three focus groups will involve 8-10 individuals.

2. Describe the procedures for the collection, including: the statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection; the estimation procedure; the degree of accuracy needed for the purpose described in the justification; any unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures; and any use of periodic (less frequent than annual) data collection cycles to reduce burden.

There is no statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection used or a specialized sampling procedure. The online survey is self-selected in that, the sample consists of those who access the online survey and complete it. There are no data collection cycles.

NWS will reach out to known groups to identify lifeguard and decision-maker focus group participants. We will work with contacts in the NWS WFOs in Newport/Morehead City and Wilmington to identify emergency managers, broadcast meteorologists and other officials who are part of their IWTs. Further, we will contact local government officials and lifeguard certification organizations to identify lifeguards. The first 8-10 for each focus group that respond to this outreach will be included in the focus groups.

3. Describe the methods used to maximize response rates and to deal with nonresponse. The accuracy and reliability of the information collected must be shown to be adequate for the intended uses. For collections based on sampling, a special justification must be provided if they will not yield "reliable" data that can be generalized to the universe studied.

This sample is self-selected in that, the sample consists of those who access the online survey and complete it. The survey link will be kept open for as long as necessary to get a useful number of responses (300-500). While there is no expectation that the data will be able to be generalized, we do expect the data will be useful in achieving the objectives of the research.

With regards to the focus groups, we will use various contacts to encourage participation in the focus groups. Since those who are invited to participate in the focus groups are likely to benefit directly from their participation, we expect a willingness to participate.

4. Describe any tests of procedures or methods to be undertaken. Tests are encouraged as effective means to refine collections, but if ten or more test respondents are involved OMB must give prior approval.

The internal prototypes have been pilot tested to obtain feedback among East Carolina University (ECU) students, staff, and faculty via an internal, web-based questionnaire. This process winnowed and refined a set of 3-5 draft NWS prototype graphics. The objective of these graphics was to ensure timeliness, completeness, compatibility with multiple viewing devices and browsers, and congruity with rip current education and awareness messaging. For each of the following, we implemented a phased-approach of 1) scoping and designing conceptual graphical mockups, 2) soliciting and calibrating alternative designs among sampled users, 3) refining final deliverable products as complete graphic symbol sets and accompanying source code, and 4) reporting the final products with inclusive discussion and potential caveats, qualifications, or considerations for implementation.

5. Provide the name and telephone number of individuals consulted on the statistical aspects of the design, and the name of the agency unit, contractor(s), grantee(s), or other person(s) who will actually collect and/or analyze the information for the agency.

Sampling Design, Data Analysis, and Report Writing:

Dr. April Bagwill, ECS Federal, LLC, 301-427-8111

Dr. Burrell Montz, East Carolina University, 252-328- 6086

Dr. Thomas Allen, Old Dominion University, 252-328- 6624