Potato Stocks Publication

Potato Stocks
ISSN: 1949-1565

Released December 12, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Potato Stocks Down 3 Percent From December 2012
The 13 major potato States held 263 million cwt of potatoes in storage December 1, 2014, down 3 percent from 2 years
ago. Potatoes in storage accounted for 66 percent of the 2014 fall storage States' production, the same as 2 years earlier.
Potato disappearance, at 136 million cwt, was down 2 percent from December 1, 2012. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at
13.8 million cwt, was the same as 2012. Processors in the 9 major States used 74.4 million cwt of potatoes for the season,
down 1 percent from December 2012.
Fall Potato Production and Stocks – 13 Major States: December 1, 2013-2014
[Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2013 totaled 25.6 million cwt]
Crop of 2013
State

Crop of 2014

Production

Stocks
December 1,
2013

December stocks
as a percent
of
production

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(percent)

Production

Stocks
December 1,
2014

December stocks
as a percent
of
production

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(percent)

California ...................
Colorado ....................
Idaho .........................
Maine ........................
Michigan ....................
Minnesota ..................
Montana ....................
Nebraska ...................
New York ...................
North Dakota .............

3,504
20,304
131,131
15,660
15,840
17,325
3,441
8,418
4,959
22,620

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

4,038
23,735
134,240
15,403
15,725
16,800
3,424
6,364
4,560
24,255

2,100
17,700
94,000
11,600
9,400
11,000
3,300
3,900
2,000
17,000

52
75
70
75
60
65
96
61
44
70

Oregon ......................
Washington ...............
Wisconsin ..................

21,582
96,000
26,040

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

22,815
99,825
27,720

17,400
57,000
17,000

76
57
61

Total ..........................

386,824

(NA)

(NA)

398,904

263,400

66

Klamath Basin 1 .........

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

4,600

(NA)

(NA) Not available.
1
Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath Co. Oregon.

Fall Potato Production and Stocks – 13 Major States: 2005-2014
[Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop
year

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Production

December 1

January 1

February 1

March 1

April 1

May 1

June 1

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......
.......

375,118
389,527
397,753
369,866
383,962
357,467
382,318
410,367
386,824
398,904

253,800
258,900
265,500
243,700
265,800
240,200
253,000
271,500
(NA)
263,400

220,500
225,800
232,300
213,200
234,300
209,400
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

189,100
192,200
199,300
183,900
203,500
180,300
187,500
204,600
(NA)

155,500
159,500
163,400
152,700
169,700
148,500
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

115,700
120,900
125,500
115,800
128,700
111,000
115,650
(NA)
119,050

75,900
79,050
83,960
78,100
89,610
72,000
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

41,560
44,460
50,420
45,300
55,120
41,320
43,340
(NA)
46,885

(NA) Not available.

Fall Potato Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks – 10 Selected States: December 1, 2013-2014
Potato types
State

Reds

Round whites

Long whites

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

Yellows

Russets

2013

2014

2013

2014

(percent)

(percent)

(percent)

(percent)

(percent)

(percent)

(percent)

(percent)

(percent)

(percent)

Colorado ...................................
Idaho .........................................
Maine ........................................
Michigan ...................................
Minnesota .................................
New York ..................................
North Dakota .............................
Oregon ......................................
Washington ...............................
Wisconsin .................................

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

5
2
5
18
1
31
2
3
9

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

13
2
28
85
8
85
22
4
5
32

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

2
5
1
1
5
1
4
2

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

10
1
6
1
2
1
1
2
2
2

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

72
93
56
14
71
12
41
91
86
55

10 State average .......................

(NA)

6

(NA)

12

(NA)

2

(NA)

2

(NA)

78

- Represents zero.
(NA) Not available.

Potato Shrinkage and Loss – 13 Fall Storage States: 2011-2014
[Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop
year

2011
2012
2013
2014

To
December 1

To
January 1

To
February 1

To
March 1

To
April 1

To
May 1

To
June 1

(million cwt)

(million cwt)

(million cwt)

(million cwt)

(million cwt)

(million cwt)

(million cwt)

.......
.......
.......
.......

13.7
13.8
(NA)
13.8

16.4
16.4
(NA)

18.8
18.9
(NA)

20.8
(NA)
(NA)

22.9
(NA)
21.9

24.5
(NA)
25.0

25.9
(NA)
27.6

(NA) Not available.

2

Potato Stocks (December 2014)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing – 9 Major States: 2012-2014
[Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Blank cells indicate estimation period
has not yet begun]
State and
crop year

To
December 1

To
January 1

To
February 1

To
March 1

To
April 1

To
May 1

To
June 1

Season

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

Idaho and Oregon, Malheur
2012 ....................................
2013 ....................................
2014 ....................................

27,900
25,770
27,685

34,740
32,060

41,890
39,090

49,980
46,320

57,750
53,755

65,430
61,780

73,430
70,425

89,780
85,280

Maine 1
2012 ....................................
2013 ....................................
2014 ....................................

1,890
1,570
1,410

2,380
1,990

3,005
2,510

3,600
3,060

4,290
3,680

5,075
4,240

5,740
4,800

7,720
6,315

Washington and Oregon, Other
2012 ....................................
2013 ....................................
2014 ....................................

31,295
31,575
31,870

37,730
37,990

43,820
45,420

51,765
52,690

57,915
59,025

64,500
64,905

70,470
72,325

80,400
80,655

Other States 2
2012 ....................................
2013 ....................................
2014 ....................................

14,270
11,365
13,440

16,765
14,280

19,785
17,470

22,520
20,475

25,170
23,695

28,320
26,990

31,100
30,195

40,395
37,425

Total
2012 ....................................
2013 ....................................
2014 ....................................

75,355
70,280
74,405

91,615
86,320

108,500
104,490

127,865
122,545

145,125
140,155

163,325
157,915

180,740
177,745

218,295
209,675

Dehydrated 3
2012 ....................................
2013 ....................................
2014 ....................................

13,965
12,065
12,935

17,640
15,875

22,000
19,835

26,105
23,380

30,135
27,140

34,610
31,095

38,945
34,895

47,305
44,385

1

Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips.
Other States include Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in
Wisconsin.
3
Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington.
2

Potato Stocks (December 2014)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Potato stocks surveys are conducted in 13 major fall potato producing States, which account for
90 percent of the United States all potato production. Growers, processors, and storage facilities are contacted during the
months of December, February, April and June to obtain the quantity of potatoes stored as of the first of the month, as
well as shrinkage and loss information. Processing data is collected in nine States (Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota,
Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin).
Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks surveys along with federal administrative data is
used to establish estimates of stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These estimates are reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates.
Revision Policy: Stocks, processing, and shrinkage and loss estimates for the previous estimating period are subject to
revision based on late and/or updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information available, including
disposition data, will be thoroughly reviewed and any necessary revisions for the entire crop year will be published in the
Potatoes Annual Summary.
Reliability: Survey indications are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding potato stocks are not
included in the sample. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation
for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured directly,
but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported
data for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical
measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 stocks estimate and the final
estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest
20 year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error”.
Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-ofseason estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3
that the current estimate of 263 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.8 percent, or
approximately 4.73 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
3.1 percent, or approximately 8.15 million cwt.
Changes between the December 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged
3.52 million cwt, ranging from 110,000 cwt to 9.20 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the December 1 estimate has
been below the final estimate 13 times, and above 6 times.

Fall Potato Preliminary and Final December 1 Stocks – United States: 2004-2014 Crop Years
Crop
year

Preliminary
stocks

Percent of
final

(1,000 cwt)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................

Final
stocks

(percent)
271,600
253,400
252,300
270,000
242,200
264,500
232,300
249,900
280,300
(NA)
263,400

(1,000 cwt)
100.2
99.8
97.5
101.7
99.4
99.5
96.7
98.8
103.2
(NA)
(NA)

271,100
253,800
258,900
265,500
243,700
265,800
240,200
253,000
271,500
(NA)
(NA)

(NA) Not available.
4

Potato Stocks (December 2014)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Access to NASS Reports
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