Turkeys Raised - Release

Turkeys Raised
ISSN: 1949-1972

Released September 28, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Turkeys Raised Down 1 percent from 2017
Turkeys Raised in the United States during 2018 is forecasted at 240 million, down 1 percent from the number raised
during 2017.
A combination of six states account for nearly two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2018. The
largest turkey producing state is Minnesota, at 42.5 million turkeys, up 1 percent from the previous year. North Carolina is
down 5 percent from last year, producing 31.0 million turkeys. Arkansas produced 28.5 million turkeys, which is up 8
percent from the previous year. Indiana is up 3 percent from a year ago to 20.5 million turkeys. Missouri is down 8
percent from last year, producing 17.3 million turkeys. Virginia is up 1 percent from the previous year at 17.0 million
turkeys.

Number of Turkeys Raised – United States
Million head
260
255
250
245
240
235

230
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Number of Turkeys Raised – States and United States: 2017 and 2018
Number raised
State

2017

2018

2018 as
percent
of 2017

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(percent)

Arkansas ...........................................................................
California ..........................................................................
Indiana ..............................................................................
Iowa ..................................................................................
Michigan ...........................................................................
Minnesota .........................................................................
Missouri ............................................................................
North Carolina ...................................................................
Ohio ..................................................................................
Pennsylvania ....................................................................

26,500
11,500
20,000
12,000
5,100
42,000
18,800
32,500
6,700
7,500

28,500
11,000
20,500
11,400
5,400
42,500
17,300
31,000
6,700
7,000

108
96
103
95
106
101
92
95
100
93

South Dakota ....................................................................
Utah ..................................................................................
Virginia ..............................................................................
West Virginia .....................................................................

4,100
5,200
16,800
3,700

4,200
(D)
17,000
3,600

102
(D)
101
97

Other States 1 ...................................................................

30,100

33,900

113

United States ....................................................................

242,500

240,000

99

(D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.
1
Includes State estimates not shown and States withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Data for turkeys raised estimates are collected from all known operations raising 1,000 or more
turkeys annually. NASS regional offices maintain a list of all known turkey grow-out operations. Approximately 340
turkey grow-out operations are contacted in September and February. The data collected were received by electronic data
reporting, mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews.
Estimating Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production and
breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those
destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September
Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, published
in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications
for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by state turkey or poultry
associations.
Revision Policy: Estimates from the previous year are subject to revision when final raised estimates are made in April.
Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the
five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.

2

Turkeys Raised (September 2018)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Reliability: Turkeys raised estimates are based on a census of all known turkey grow-out operations, and therefore have
no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, mistakes in reporting or
recording, and processing of the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict
quality controls in the data collection process, and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the “Root Mean Square Error” for number of turkeys
raised is shown in the following table. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based on past performance
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for number of
turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not
be above or below the current estimate of 240 million turkeys by more than 1.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the
difference will not exceed 1.8 percent.

Reliability of September Turkeys Raised Estimates
[Based on data for the past ten years]
Item

Root mean
square error
(percent)

Number raised .................................

1.0

Difference between first and latest estimate

90 percent
confidence
level

Average

Smallest

Largest

(percent)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

1.8

2,053

500

5,100

Years
Below latest

Above latest

(number)

(number)
4

6

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......................................................................................................... (202) 720-3570
Tony Dorn, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ..................................................................... (202) 690-3223
Holly Brenize – Poultry Slaughter............................................................................................................. (202) 720-0585
Alissa Cowell-Mytar – Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses .......................................... (202) 720-4751
Liana Cuffman – Catfish and Trout, Egg Products, Mink, Census of Aquaculture ................................. (202) 720-8784
Fatema Haque – Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ............................................................................. (202) 720-3244
Kim Linonis – Layers, Eggs ..................................................................................................................... (202) 690-3676
Adam Peters – Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised .................................................................................... (202) 690-3237
Erica Sadler – Cost of Pollination, Honey, Honey Bee Colonies ............................................................. (202) 720-6147

Turkeys Raised (September 2018)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

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