Crop Production - Publication

Crop Production
ISSN: 1936-3737

Released April 11, 2023, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Down 2 Percent from March Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2022-2023 season is 2.57 million tons, down 2 percent from the previous
forecast and down 25 percent from the 2021- 2022 revised utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at
16.1 million boxes (725,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 61 percent from last season’s
revised utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 6.10 million boxes (275,000 tons),
unchanged from the previous forecast but down 67 percent from last season’s revised utilization. The Florida Valencia
orange forecast, at 10.0 million boxes (450,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 56 percent from
last season’s revised utilization.
The California all orange forecast is 45.1 million boxes (1.80 million tons), is down 2 percent from previous forecast but
up 15 percent from last season’s revised utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 37.0 million boxes
(1.48 million tons), down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 17 percent from last season’s revised utilization.
The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.10 million boxes (324,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but
up 7 percent from last season’s revised utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.05 million boxes (45,000 tons)
down 9 percent from the previous forecast but up significantly from last season’s revised utilization.

This report was approved on April 11, 2023.

Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Seth Meyer

2

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Joseph L. Parsons

Crop Production (April 2023)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2021-2022 and Forecasted
April 1, 2023 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2022 and 2023 ..................... 6
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 2022 and 2023 ......................... 8
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2022 and 2023 .................................................................. 10
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2022 and 2023 ....................................................................... 11
Percent of Normal Precipitation Map ................................................................................................................................... 12
Departure from Normal Temperature Map ........................................................................................................................... 12
March Weather Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 13
March Agricultural Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 14
Crop Comments .................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Statistical Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 15
Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts ................................................................................................................. 15
Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 16

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USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

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4

Crop Production (April 2023)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2021-2022 and
Forecasted April 1, 2023
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year]
Utilized production boxes 1

Crop and State

Utilized production ton equivalent

2021-2022

2022-2023

2021-2022

2022-2023

(1,000 boxes)

(1,000 boxes)

(1,000 tons)

(1,000 tons)

Oranges
California, all ...........................................
Early, mid, and Navel 2 .........................
Valencia ................................................

39,100
31,500
7,600

45,100
37,000
8,100

1,564
1,260
304

1,804
1,480
324

Florida, all ...............................................
Early, mid, and Navel 2 .........................
Valencia ................................................

41,200
18,250
22,950

16,100
6,100
10,000

1,854
821
1,033

725
275
450

Texas, all ................................................
Early, mid, and Navel 2 .........................
Valencia ................................................

200
170
30

1,050
700
350

8
7
1

45
30
15

United States, all ....................................
Early, mid, and Navel 2 .........................
Valencia ................................................

80,500
49,920
30,580

62,250
43,800
18,450

3,426
2,088
1,338

2,574
1,785
789

Grapefruit
California ................................................
Florida ....................................................
Texas .....................................................

4,100
3,330
1,700

4,200
1,700
2,400

164
142
68

168
72
96

United States ..........................................

9,130

8,300

374

336

Tangerines and mandarins
California ................................................
Florida ....................................................

17,500
750

21,000
500

700
36

840
24

United States ..........................................

18,250

21,500

736

864

Lemons
Arizona ...................................................
California ................................................

1,250
25,200

1,700
23,000

50
1,008

68
920

United States ..........................................

26,450

24,700

1,058

988

3

1

Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in
California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.
2
Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas.
3
Includes tangelos and tangors.

Crop Production (April 2023)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States:
2022 and 2023
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Area planted

Area harvested

2022

2023

2022

2023

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

Grains and hay
Barley .....................................................................................
Corn for grain 1 ........................................................................
Corn for silage ........................................................................
Hay, all ....................................................................................
Alfalfa ..................................................................................
All other ...............................................................................
Oats ........................................................................................
Proso millet .............................................................................
Rice ........................................................................................
Rye .........................................................................................
Sorghum for grain 1 .................................................................
Sorghum for silage ..................................................................
Wheat, all ................................................................................
Winter .................................................................................
Durum .................................................................................
Other spring ........................................................................

2,945
88,579
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
2,581
637
2,222
2,175
6,325
(NA)
45,738
33,271
1,632
10,835

2,922
91,996

Oilseeds
Canola ....................................................................................
Cottonseed .............................................................................
Flaxseed .................................................................................
Mustard seed ..........................................................................
Peanuts ..................................................................................
Rapeseed ...............................................................................
Safflower .................................................................................
Soybeans for beans ................................................................
Sunflower ................................................................................

2,213.0
(X)
263
221.0
1,450.3
10.9
150.2
87,450
1,693.0

2,270.0

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all ...............................................................................
Upland ................................................................................
American Pima ....................................................................
Sugarbeets .............................................................................
Sugarcane ..............................................................................
Tobacco ..................................................................................

13,763.0
13,580.0
183.0
1,159.5
(NA)
(NA)

11,256.0
11,102.0
154.0
1,110.8
(NA)

7,440.7
7,262.5
178.2
1,137.1
930.2
201.8

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Chickpeas ...............................................................................
Dry edible beans .....................................................................
Dry edible peas .......................................................................
Lentils .....................................................................................

353.1
1,250.0
919.0
660.0

340.5
1,226.0
1,000.0
519.0

341.9
1,223.0
862.0
602.0

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Hops .......................................................................................
Maple syrup ............................................................................
Mushrooms .............................................................................
Peppermint oil .........................................................................
Potatoes .................................................................................
Spearmint oil ...........................................................................

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
901.0
(NA)

See footnote(s) at end of table.

6

(NA)

2,667
2,583
5,975
49,855
37,505
1,780
10,570

175
1,547.0

87,505
1,361.0

2,433
79,207
6,860
49,546
14,913
34,633
890
507
2,172
341
4,570
525
35,480
23,459
1,581
10,440

50,645

2,169.0
(X)
244
182.0
1,385.4
10.4
135.3
86,336
1,607.0

197.1

59.8
(NA)
(NA)
34.0
895.6
13.7
--continued

Crop Production (April 2023)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States:
2022 and 2023 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Yield per acre
2022

Production
2023

2022

2023

(1,000)

(1,000)

Grains and hay
Barley ......................................................................... bushels
Corn for grain .............................................................. bushels
Corn for silage ..................................................................tons
Hay, all .............................................................................tons
Alfalfa ...........................................................................tons
All other ........................................................................tons
Oats ............................................................................ bushels
Proso millet ................................................................. bushels
Rice 2 ................................................................................. cwt
Rye ............................................................................. bushels
Sorghum for grain ....................................................... bushels
Sorghum for silage ............................................................tons
Wheat, all ................................................................... bushels
Winter ..................................................................... bushels
Durum ..................................................................... bushels
Other spring ............................................................ bushels

71.7
173.3
18.7
2.28
3.22
1.87
64.8
18.5
7,383
36.1
41.1
10.8
46.5
47.0
40.5
46.2

174,333
13,729,719
128,567
112,801
47,958
64,843
57,655
9,403
160,368
12,301
187,785
5,662
1,649,878
1,103,707
63,981
482,190

Oilseeds
Canola ......................................................................... pounds
Cottonseed .......................................................................tons
Flaxseed ..................................................................... bushels
Mustard seed ............................................................... pounds
Peanuts ....................................................................... pounds
Rapeseed .................................................................... pounds
Safflower ..................................................................... pounds
Soybeans for beans .................................................... bushels
Sunflower .................................................................... pounds

1,762
(X)
17.6
557
4,019
1,863
1,213
49.5
1,750

3,821,810
4,455.0
4,304
101,290
5,568,150
19,380
164,054
4,276,123
2,812,540

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 2 ..................................................................... bales
Upland 2 ...................................................................... bales
American Pima 2 ......................................................... bales
Sugarbeets .......................................................................tons
Sugarcane ........................................................................tons
Tobacco ....................................................................... pounds

947
939
1,277
28.6
37.3
2,217

14,680.0
14,206.0
474.0
32,574
34,671
447,367

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Chickpeas 2 ....................................................................... cwt
Dry edible beans 2 ............................................................. cwt
Dry edible peas 2 ............................................................... cwt
Lentils 2 .............................................................................. cwt

1,070
2,113
1,751
912

3,658
25,847
15,092
5,489

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Hops ............................................................................ pounds
Maple syrup ................................................................. gallons
Mushrooms .................................................................. pounds
Peppermint oil .............................................................. pounds
Potatoes ............................................................................ cwt
Spearmint oil ............................................................... pounds

1,694
(NA)
(NA)
99
438
120

101,286.3
5,028
702,391
3,349
392,243
1,648

(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1
Area planted for all purposes.
2
Yield in pounds.

Crop Production (April 2023)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

7

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States:
2022 and 2023
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Area planted

Area harvested

2022

2023

2022

2023

(hectares)

(hectares)

(hectares)

(hectares)

Grains and hay
Barley ........................................................................
Corn for grain 1 ...........................................................
Corn for silage ...........................................................
Hay, all 2 ....................................................................
Alfalfa .....................................................................
All other ..................................................................
Oats ...........................................................................
Proso millet ................................................................
Rice ...........................................................................
Rye ............................................................................
Sorghum for grain 1 ....................................................
Sorghum for silage .....................................................
Wheat, all 2 ................................................................
Winter ....................................................................
Durum ....................................................................
Other spring ...........................................................

1,191,810
35,847,040
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1,044,500
257,790
899,220
880,200
2,559,660
(NA)
18,509,710
13,464,440
660,450
4,384,820

1,182,500
37,229,860

Oilseeds
Canola .......................................................................
Cottonseed ................................................................
Flaxseed ....................................................................
Mustard seed .............................................................
Peanuts .....................................................................
Rapeseed ..................................................................
Safflower ....................................................................
Soybeans for beans ...................................................
Sunflower ...................................................................

895,580
(X)
106,430
89,440
586,920
4,410
60,780
35,390,140
685,140

918,650

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 2 ................................................................
Upland ...................................................................
American Pima .......................................................
Sugarbeets ................................................................
Sugarcane .................................................................
Tobacco .....................................................................

5,569,750
5,495,690
74,060
469,240
(NA)
(NA)

4,555,190
4,492,870
62,320
449,530
(NA)

3,011,180
2,939,060
72,120
460,170
376,440
81,650

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Chickpeas ..................................................................
Dry edible beans ........................................................
Dry edible peas ..........................................................
Lentils ........................................................................

142,900
505,860
371,910
267,100

137,800
496,150
404,690
210,030

138,360
494,940
348,840
243,620

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Hops ..........................................................................
Maple syrup ...............................................................
Mushrooms ................................................................
Peppermint oil ............................................................
Potatoes ....................................................................
Spearmint oil ..............................................................

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
364,630
(NA)

See footnote(s) at end of table.

8

(NA)

1,079,310
1,045,310
2,418,020
20,175,820
15,177,900
720,350
4,277,570

70,820
626,060

35,412,400
550,780

984,610
32,054,280
2,776,170
20,050,770
6,035,140
14,015,630
360,170
205,180
878,990
138,000
1,849,430
212,460
14,358,400
9,493,620
639,810
4,224,960

20,495,530

877,770
(X)
98,740
73,650
560,660
4,210
54,750
34,939,320
650,340

79,750

24,190
(NA)
(NA)
13,760
362,440
5,540
--continued

Crop Production (April 2023)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States:
2022 and 2023 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Yield per hectare

Production

2022

2023

2022

2023

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

Grains and hay
Barley .....................................................................................
Corn for grain ..........................................................................
Corn for silage ........................................................................
Hay, all 2 .................................................................................
Alfalfa .................................................................................
All other ..............................................................................
Oats ........................................................................................
Proso millet .............................................................................
Rice ........................................................................................
Rye .........................................................................................
Sorghum for grain ...................................................................
Sorghum for silage ..................................................................
Wheat, all 2 .............................................................................
Winter .................................................................................
Durum .................................................................................
Other spring ........................................................................

3.85
10.88
42.01
5.10
7.21
4.20
2.32
1.04
8.28
2.26
2.58
24.18
3.13
3.16
2.72
3.11

3,795,650
348,750,930
116,634,020
102,331,350
43,506,770
58,824,580
836,860
213,260
7,274,170
312,460
4,769,960
5,136,480
44,902,320
30,037,980
1,741,280
13,123,060

Oilseeds
Canola ....................................................................................
Cottonseed .............................................................................
Flaxseed .................................................................................
Mustard seed ..........................................................................
Peanuts ..................................................................................
Rapeseed ...............................................................................
Safflower ................................................................................
Soybeans for beans ................................................................
Sunflower ...............................................................................

1.97
(X)
1.11
0.62
4.50
2.09
1.36
3.33
1.96

1,733,540
4,041,510
109,330
45,940
2,525,670
8,790
74,410
116,377,000
1,275,750

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 2 .............................................................................
Upland ................................................................................
American Pima ...................................................................
Sugarbeets .............................................................................
Sugarcane ..............................................................................
Tobacco ..................................................................................

1.06
1.05
1.43
64.22
83.55
2.49

3,196,190
3,092,990
103,200
29,550,640
31,453,000
202,920

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Chickpeas ...............................................................................
Dry edible beans .....................................................................
Dry edible peas .......................................................................
Lentils .....................................................................................

1.20
2.37
1.96
1.02

165,920
1,172,400
684,560
248,980

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Hops .......................................................................................
Maple syrup ............................................................................
Mushrooms .............................................................................
Peppermint oil .........................................................................
Potatoes .................................................................................
Spearmint oil ..........................................................................

1.90
(NA)
(NA)
0.11
49.09
0.13

45,940
25,140
318,600
1,520
17,791,840
750

(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1
Area planted for all purposes.
2
Total may not add due to rounding.

Crop Production (April 2023)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

9

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2022 and 2023
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2022-2023 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop
Citrus 1
Grapefruit .............................................................................................. 1,000 tons
Lemons ................................................................................................. 1,000 tons
Oranges ................................................................................................ 1,000 tons
Tangerines and mandarins .................................................................... 1,000 tons
Noncitrus
Apples, commercial ......................................................................... million pounds
Apricots .......................................................................................................... tons
Avocados ....................................................................................................... tons
Blueberries, Cultivated ..................................................................... 1,000 pounds
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) ................................................................. 1,000 pounds
Cherries, Sweet ............................................................................................. tons
Cherries, Tart .................................................................................. million pounds
Coffee (Hawaii) ................................................................................ 1,000 pounds
Cranberries .................................................................................................. barrel
Dates ............................................................................................................. tons
Grapes ........................................................................................................... tons
Kiwifruit (California) ........................................................................................ tons
Nectarines (California) ................................................................................... tons
Olives (California) .......................................................................................... tons
Papayas (Hawaii) ............................................................................. 1,000 pounds
Peaches ......................................................................................................... tons
Pears ............................................................................................................. tons
Plums (California) .......................................................................................... tons
Prunes (California) ......................................................................................... tons
Raspberries, all ............................................................................... 1,000 pounds
Strawberries ........................................................................................... 1,000 cwt
Nuts and miscellaneous
Almonds, shelled (California) ........................................................... 1,000 pounds
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ........................................................................... tons
Macadamias (Hawaii) ....................................................................... 1,000 pounds
Pecans, in-shell ................................................................................ 1,000 pounds
Pistachios (California) ...................................................................... 1,000 pounds
Walnuts, in-shell (California) .......................................................................... tons
1

Production
2022

2023
374
1,058
3,426
736

336
988
2,574
864

10,110.0
36,200

275,000
229.2
26,000
7,440,000

5,985,000

583,500
690,000

2,600,000
68,000
274,520
720,000

Production years are 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.

10

Crop Production (April 2023)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2022 and 2023
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2022-2023 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Citrus 1
Grapefruit .............................................................................................................
Lemons ................................................................................................................
Oranges ................................................................................................................
Tangerines and mandarins ...................................................................................
Noncitrus
Apples, commercial ..............................................................................................
Apricots ................................................................................................................
Avocados ..............................................................................................................
Blueberries, Cultivated ..........................................................................................
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) ......................................................................................
Cherries, Sweet ....................................................................................................
Cherries, Tart ........................................................................................................
Coffee (Hawaii) .....................................................................................................
Cranberries ...........................................................................................................
Dates ....................................................................................................................
Grapes .................................................................................................................
Kiwifruit (California) ...............................................................................................
Nectarines (California) ..........................................................................................
Olives (California) .................................................................................................
Papayas (Hawaii) .................................................................................................
Peaches ...............................................................................................................
Pears ....................................................................................................................
Plums (California) .................................................................................................
Prunes (California) ................................................................................................
Raspberries, all .....................................................................................................
Strawberries .........................................................................................................
Nuts and miscellaneous
Almonds, shelled (California) ................................................................................
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .................................................................................
Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........................................................................................
Pecans, in-shell ....................................................................................................
Pistachios (California) ...........................................................................................
Walnuts, in-shell (California) .................................................................................
1

Production
2022

2023

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

339,290
959,800
3,108,010
667,690

304,810
896,300
2,335,090
783,810

4,585,820
32,840

249,480
103,960
11,790
337,470

5,429,500

529,340
625,960

1,179,340
61,690
124,520
653,170

Production years are 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.

Crop Production (April 2023)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

11

12

Crop Production (April 2023)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

March Weather Summary
Drought continued to disappear at an incredibly fast pace across much of the country, although punishing conditions
persisted on the central and southern High Plains. By April 4, drought covered just 28.23 percent of the contiguous
United States, according to the Drought Monitor, down from 38.46 percent at the end of February and the October 2022
peak of 62.95 percent. A few spots, including much of California’s San Joaquin Valley and parts of southeastern
Oklahoma, made the transition from exceptional drought (D4) to neither dryness nor drought (D-nothing) over the last
5 months. Still, with worsening conditions gripping portions of the central and southern Plains, extreme to exceptional
drought (D3 to D4) covered more than one-half (52 percent) of Kansas on April 4, along with 38 percent of Oklahoma,
33 percent of Nebraska, and 19 percent of Texas.
Most of those severely drought-affected areas endured mostly dry, windy March weather, leading to periods of blowing
dust and a chronically elevated wildfire threat. In Oklahoma, several early-spring blazes charred more than 1,000 acres;
among them: the Boar Creek Fire near Hominy, which was sparked on March 23, and the Keeler Fire near Burbank,
which started on March 29. Meanwhile, Lubbock, Texas, reported peak wind gusts ranging from 45 to 60 mph on 10 days
during March. By April 2, USDA/NASS noted more than one-third of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor
condition in Kansas (57 percent), Texas (47 percent), Oklahoma (40 percent), and Nebraska (38 percent). On the same
date, only 28 percent of the Nation’s winter wheat was rated in good to excellent condition, lowest since 1996, when the
April 7 report showed 27 percent of the crop in those two categories.
USDA/NASS topsoil moisture reports also highlighted the severity of the central and southern Plains’ drought. On
April 2, topsoil moisture was rated one-half to three-quarters very short to short in Kansas (73 percent), Texas
(72 percent), New Mexico (68 percent), Oklahoma (63 percent), and Nebraska (56 percent). Much of Florida’s peninsula
was also very dry during March, leading to a statewide value of 48 percent very short to short by April 2. In contrast,
topsoil moisture on that date was rated 40 to 60 percent surplus in portions of the mid-South, Midwest, and West,
including Arkansas, California, Nevada, Utah, and five Midwestern States east of the Mississippi River. Some of the
wetness in the South and Midwest was accompanied by severe thunderstorms, especially on March 2-3, 24-26, and 31.
Multiple deadly tornadoes occurred on the 24th and 31st.
Although stormy weather covered much of the western and north-central United States during March, there were subtle
exceptions. For example, relatively dry weather prevailed along and near portions of the Canadian border, especially from
Washington into northwestern Montana. Farther south, however, the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada
snowpack topped 60 inches, according to the California Department of Water Resources, 235 percent of the normal
April 1 value. Snowpack in the southern Sierra Nevada, also greater than 60 inches and roughly three times normal,
surpassed the 1982-83 record value. Even with so much moisture still locked into the mountain snowpack, extensive
flooding affected parts of California. On March 11, the Pajaro River at Chittenden, California, achieved its highest crest
since February 1998. Along the same waterway, extensive levee breaks flooded the northern Monterey County
community of Pajaro, as well as neighboring agricultural land. Less than 2 weeks later in the San Joaquin Valley,
Tulare Lake basin began to fill, covering pastures, fields, and orchards, while threatening low-lying communities such as
Alpaugh and Allensworth. The historic lakebed, normally kept dry by a network of canals and levees, partially floods
during and after extremely wet seasons, such as 1968-69 and 1982-83.
The West’s stormy pattern, which also featured record-setting early-month snowfall in southern California and subsequent
recovery efforts, extended to other areas, such as the northern Plains and Midwest. Some locations in the north-central
United States, including Bismarck and Grand Forks, North Dakota, reported a continuous snow cover from November 10,
2022, through the end of March 2023. Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, which had reported at least an inch of snow on
the ground each day since November 29, 2022, finally saw its coverage reduced to less than an inch (a trace) by March 26.
As late-winter storms continued to move across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, some livestock producers faced
challenges during lambing and calving, which in North Dakota was 62 and 39 percent complete, respectively, by April 2.
Elsewhere, March was generally a dry month in the middle and northern Atlantic States, following a nearly snowless
winter from the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic Coast. In fact, season-to-date snowfall through March totaled less than an
inch in locations such as Washington, D.C. (0.4 inch, or 3 percent of normal); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (0.3 inch, or
1 percent), and Baltimore, Maryland (0.2 inch, or 1 percent). Farther south, a brief but sharp Southeastern cold snap
Crop Production (April 2023)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

13

peaked on March 20-21, with freezes occurring as far south as the Gulf Coast in Alabama, Mississippi, and western
Florida. Readings below 10°F had been reported a few days earlier as far south as the central Plains. Overall, March was a
warm month in the Deep South and along the Atlantic Seaboard, with temperatures averaging up to 5°F above normal
across peninsular Florida, but was unusually cold across the Plains, West, and upper Midwest. Monthly temperatures
averaged at least 10 to 15°F below normal in numerous locations from the Intermountain West to the northern Plains.
March Agricultural Summary
Except for the Midwest, March was warmer than average for most of the eastern half of the Nation. Large parts of
New England, and much of the South recorded temperatures 3°F or more above normal. In contrast, most of the western
half of the Nation was cooler than normal. Much of the Northern Plains and Rockies, as well as large parts of California,
the Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest recorded temperatures, 6°F or more below normal. Large areas in Montana,
North Dakota, and Wyoming recorded temperatures 15°F or more below normal. During March, much of the western half
of the Nation received higher than normal amounts of precipitation. Large parts of California, the Great Basin, Rockies,
and Southwest received at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Parts of the Northern Plains and
Pacific Northwest also recorded twice the normal amount of precipitation. Parts of California received at least 15 inches
of rain for the month. In the East, while much of Florida, the Gulf Coast, and Mid-Atlantic remained drier than normal,
parts of the Midwest and Mississippi Valley received at least twice the normal amount of precipitation.
By April 2, six percent of the Nation’s winter wheat crop was headed, 2 percentage points ahead of last year and
4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. On April 2, twenty-eight percent of the 2023 winter wheat crop was
reported in good to excellent condition, 2 percentage points below last year.
Crop Comments
Grapefruit: The United States 2022-2023 grapefruit crop is forecast at 336,000 tons, up 2 percent from the previous
forecast but down 10 percent from last season’s revised utilization. The California forecast, at 4.20 million boxes
(168,000 tons), is down 2 percent from previous forecast but up 2 percent from the last seasons revised total.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 864,000 tons, down 4 percent
from the previous forecast but up 17 percent from the last season’s revised utilization. The California tangerine and
mandarin forecast at 21.0 million boxes (840,000 tons) is down 5 percent from the previous forecast but up 20 percent
from last season revised total.
Lemons: The 2022-2023 United States lemon crop is forecast at 988,000 tons, up 5 percent from previous forecast but
down 7 percent from last season’s revised utilization. The California forecast, at 23.0 million boxes (920,000 tons), is
up 5 percent from the previous forecast but down 9 percent from the revised 2021-2022 season. The Arizona forecast, at
1.70 million boxes (68,000 tons), is up 13 percent from the previous forecast and up 36 percent from the revised 20212022 season.

14

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Statistical Methodology
Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and
September of last year, the number of bearing trees and number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent
months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous
components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly
basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for
Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current
situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare
the published April 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These
three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the
survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast.
Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month
throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in
August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information
from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home
use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error,"
a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and
the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error."
Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final
end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent
years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.8 percent. This means
that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by
more than 3.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
6.6 percent.
Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the April 1 forecast
and the final estimate. Using oranges again as an example, changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final
estimates during the past 20-years have averaged 163,000 tons, ranging from 0 ton to 502,000 tons. The April 1 forecast
for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times, above 11 times and equal 1 time. The difference does not imply that
the April 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts
[Based on data for the past twenty years]

Crop

Root mean
square error

(percent)
Oranges
1

1

................................................ tons

(percent)
3.8

Difference between forecast
and final estimate

90 percent
confidence
interval

6.6

Production

Years

Average

Smallest

Largest

Below
final

(millions)

(millions)

(millions)

(number)

(number)

502

8

11

163

0

Above
final

Quantity is in thousands of units.

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USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

15

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact
for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch ....................................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section ......................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Irwin Anolik – Crop Progress and Condition ................................................................................... (202) 720-7621
Joshua Bates – Hemp, Oats, Soybeans ............................................................................................. (202) 690-3234
Natasha Bruton – Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings.................... (202) 690-1042
David Colwell – Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products ................................................................... (202) 720-8800
Michelle Harder – County Estimates, Hay ....................................................................................... (202) 690-8533
James Johanson – Rye, Wheat ......................................................................................................... (202) 720-8068
Chris Hawthorn – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet .............................................................................. (202) 720-2127
Becky Sommer – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum ..................................................................... (202) 720-5944
Travis Thorson – Sunflower, Other Oilseeds ................................................................................... (202) 720-7369
Lihan Wei – Peanuts, Rice ............................................................................................................... (202) 720-7688
Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................................................. (202) 720-2127
Deonne Holiday – Almonds, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Onions,
Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco ........................................................................................ (202) 720-4288
Robert Little – Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup,
Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes .................................................................. (202) 720-3250
Krishna Rizal – Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Garlic, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit,
Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives,
Oranges, Pistachios .................................................................................................................... (202) 720-5412
Chris Singh – Apples, Blueberries, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins,
Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes............................. (202) 720-4285
Antonio Torres – Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils,
Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons................................ (202) 720-2157
Chris Wallace – Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas,
Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans ........................................................ (202) 720-4215

16

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Access to NASS Reports
For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:
➢ All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov.
➢ Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free
subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on “National” or “State” in upper right corner above “search”
box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive.
➢ Cornell’s Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS’s and other agency’s archived reports. The
new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new
website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the
new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or
subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist [email protected] in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders.
For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540,
7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: [email protected].
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for
employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where
applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's
income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program
or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or
employment activities.)
If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination
Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or
at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the
information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax
(202) 690-7442 or email at [email protected].