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NCEP Model-Products Questionnaire - Focus Group Revisions

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https://docs.google.com/a/noaa.gov/forms/d/1upvWXrEDyf3nq9jNT65...

The National Weather Service’s (NWS) National Centers For Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is
performing a review of its numerical modeling efforts, including a comprehensive evaluation of its
modeling suite. To facilitate this evaluation, a UCAR committee of modeling experts will be working
closely with NCEP personnel to prepare specific recommendations on the strategic evolution of the
production suite. Since the goal of NCEP modeling is to supply high quality operational numerical
guidance to a wide range of stakeholders, your feedback is essential. To that end, we hope you can
spend a few minutes providing your insights through the questions below. Your input will have
substantial impact.
For reference:
NCEP Production Suite: https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/umac_model_advisory/Models
Extensive Glossary of NCEP Modeling Assets:
https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/umac_model_advisory/Model_Glossary
* Required

Paperwork Reduction Act Notification

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NCEP Model-Products Questionnaire - Focus Group Revisions

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https://docs.google.com/a/noaa.gov/forms/d/1upvWXrEDyf3nq9jNT65...

1. Question 1: Which NCEP modeling systems and derived products do you currently use? *
If you don't use a system please check N/A
Mark only one oval per row.
Critical

Very
Important

Important

Marginally
Important

N/A

High Resolution Rapid Refresh
(HRRR)
High Resolution Windows
(HiRESW)
Rapid Refresh (RAP)
North American Mesoscale
(NAM) and associated nests
Short Range Ensemble
Forecast System (SREF)
Global Forecast System (GFS)
Global Ensemble Forecast
System (GEFS)
North American Ensemble
Forecast System (NAEFS)
Climate Forecast System
(CFS), reanalysis and
reforecasts
Hurricane Weather Research
and Forecast (HWRF)
GFDL Hurricane Forecast
Model (GFDL-HFM)
Air Quality--surface ozone
(CMAQ)
Air Quality-dispersion
(HYSPLIT)
Hydrology (HEFS, AHPS,
CHPS)
North American Land Data
Assimilation Systems (NLDAS)
Real Time Ocean Forecast
System (RTOFS)
Coastal Ocean/Bays
(NOS-OFS)
Tropical and Extratropical
Storm Surge (ETSS; PSURGE;
SLOSH,ESTOFS)
Global Waves (WWW3)
Global Wave Ensemble
(GWENS)
Great Lakes waves (GLCFS)
Space Weather: Solar Flare
(WSA-ENLIL)

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NCEP Model-Products Questionnaire - Focus Group Revisions

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2. Question 1a: Are there NCEP systems and derived products not included in Question 1? If
yes, please list the system and indicate its criticality. If none, please enter "none." *

3. Question 2: In what ways is the current suite of NCEP analyses and guidance meeting your
needs? Enter "no answer" if you have no answer. *

4. Question 3: In what ways is the current suite of NCEP analyses and guidance not meeting
your needs? Enter "no answer" if you have no answer. *
For example, is the guidance not as frequent or accurate as desired, or are there parameters
missing or coverage gaps?

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5. Question 4: Are there limiting factors that prevent you from using the NCEP numerical
guidance products effectively in your business processes? Enter "no answer" in Other box
if you have no answer. *
Check all that apply.
Forecast Skill
Lack of Full Resolution Products
Frequency of Output
Lack of Verification Information
Easy Access to Model Output
Timeliness
Derived Products and Indices
Catalog of Available Products
Documentation of Products
User Guides of Products
Digital Formats
Mapping and Geographical Subsets
Ability to Form Time Series
Changing Interfaces to Products
Web Services
Other:
6. Question 5: Over the next 5 to 10 years, what kind of models and derived output would you
like to see that are currently unavailable from the NCEP modeling suite? [e.g. - How will
your needs change during the next five years for gridded model data and products? What
could NCEP provide to help satisfy your future plans?] Enter "no answer" if you have no
answer. *

7. Question 6: Do you use numerical guidance from other centers (i.e., ECMWF, UKMO, etc.)?
If so, which products? How do they provide additional value to your products and
services? Enter "no answer" in Other box if you have no answer. *

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8. Question 7a: Focusing on short to medium range weather forecasting systems, how would
you prioritize the value of the following modeling systems to your business products and
services? If you want to comment on these options, or make other recommendations on
resource tensions, please use the comment space for Question 10.
Mark only one oval per row.
Lowest

Low

Neutral

High

Highest

Deterministic global forecasts,
highest resolution
Deterministic U.S. forecasts,
highest resolution
Global ensemble forecasts,
moderate resolution
U.S. ensemble forecasts,
moderate resolution
Ensemble high resolution
probabilistic predictions of
convection and other small scale
features
9. Question 7b: Focusing on longer range climate forecasting systems, how would you
prioritize the value of the following modeling systems to your business products and
services? If you want to comment on these options, or make other recommendations on
resource tensions, please use the comment space for Question 10.
Mark only one oval per row.
Lowest

Low

Neutral

High

Highest

Ensemble monthly (1-month
mean) outlooks for the US
Ensemble monthly (1-month
mean) outlooks for regions outside
the US
Ensemble seasonal (3-month
mean) outlooks for the US
Ensemble seasonal (3-month
mean) outlooks for regions outside
the US
Ensemble seasonal global sea
surface temperature outlooks
(maps or regional indices like
ENSO)
Ensemble week-3 and week-4
outlooks of means, variance and
extremes
Ensemble outlooks beyond
one-year lead times

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10. Question 8: Based on your line of business, what modeling systems and associated
derived products would affect you most if terminated?
Mark only one oval per row.
Critical

Very
Important

Important

Marginally
Important

N/A

High resolution rapid refresh
(HRRR)
High Resolution Windows
(HiRESW)
Rapid Refresh (RAP)
North American Mesoscale
(NAM) and associated nests
Short Range Ensemble
Forecast System (SREF)
Global Forecast System (GFS)
Global Ensemble Forecast
System (GEFS)
North American Ensemble
Forecast System (NAEFS)
Climate Forecast System
(CFS) and Reforecasts
Hurricane Weather Research
and Forecast (HWRF)
GFDL Regional Hurricane
Model (GFDL-HFM)
Air Quality for Surface Ozone
(CMAQ)
Air Quality--Dispersion
(HYSPLIT)
Hydrology (HEFS,AHPS,
CHPS)
North American Land Data
Assimilation System (NLDAS)
Real Time Ocean Forecast
System (RTOFS)
Coastal Ocean and Bays
(NOS-OFS)
Tropical and Extratropical
Storm Surge (ETTS; PSURGE;
SLOSH; ESTOFS)
Global Waves (WW3)
Global Wave Ensemble
(GWENS)
Great Lakes Waves (GLCFS)
Space Weather: Solar Flare
(WSA-Enlil)

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11. Question 9: What types of forecast products and guidance will be important to your work
in the future? *
Mark only one oval per row.
Critical

Very
Important

Important

Marginally
Important

N/A

Nowcasting and Short-range
Weather Forecasting (0-3
days)
Hurricane Forecasting
Watches and Warnings
Medium-range Weather
Forecasting (0-16 days)
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal
Forecasting (S2S) (2 weeks - 1
year)
Seasonal to Interannual
Forecasting
Environmental Warnings and
Alerts (Air quality, Heat,
Geomagnetic, etc.)
Decadal Climate Forecasting
Climate Projections (>
Decadal)
Hydrological Forecasting
River Forecasting
Sea-State Forecasting
Coastal Forecasting
Surge and Inundation
Forecasting
Sea-Ice Forecasting
Air-Quality Forecast
Coupled (AtmosphereLand-Ocean-Ice) Forecasting
12. Question 10: Any other suggestions or comments you would like to provide to NCEP and
the UCAR expert’s committee that may guide their analysis? [e.g. - How will your needs
change during the next five years for gridded model data and products? What could NCEP
provide to help satisfy your future plans?]

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https://docs.google.com/a/noaa.gov/forms/d/1upvWXrEDyf3nq9jNT65...

13. Question 11: DEMOGRAPHICS: Please check the sector(s) in which you work. Use the
"Other" block to give a one sentence description of your work, as related to NCEP
products. Enter "no answer" in Other box if you have no answer. *
Check all that apply.
Broadcast Weather and Science
NWS Forecaster
Military Forecaster
Commercial / Private Sector Forecaster
Environmental Warnings and Alerts
Disaster (natural hazards) Preparedness and Planning
Seasonal Forecaster
Applications of Seasonal Forecasting
Climate-Change Preparedness
Research: Academic
Research: Commercial and Private
Research: Government
Value Added Content Provider
Natural Resource Management
Consultancy
Other:
14. Question 12: DEMOGRAPHICS: Please check the type of organization in which you work.
Enter "no answer" in Other box if you have no answer. *
Check all that apply.
Commercial Weather Information Provider
Commercial Climate Information Provider
Federal Government: NWS Forecaster
Federal Service: Other than NWS Forecaster
Consultancy
Local, State, Regional Government
Non-governmental Organization
Commercial Company
Academic
Education (K-12)
IT or eCommerce
Option 12
Other:

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15. Question 13: DEMOGRAPHICS: What is your
job title or role in your organization? *

16. Question 14: DEMOGRAPHICS: Optional:
Organization

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