Questionnaire on NOAA Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction

Dear Colleague,

I am writing in regard to Public Law, 115-25, “Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017,” Title 2, Section 201: “Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasting Innovation”. Under this section of the law, the National Weather Service is tasked with leading development of a report to Congress that has three foci:

1. An analysis of how information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on subseasonal and seasonal forecasts is utilized in public planning and preparedness. The particular forecasts to be included are:

a. NOAA forecasts of subseasonal and seasonal temperature and precipitation.

b. Number and severity of droughts, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, heat waves, coastal inundation, winter storms, high-impact weather, or other relevant natural disasters, snowpack, and sea ice conditions.

2. Specific plans and goals for the continued development of the subseasonal and seasonal forecast and related products from Point 1.

3. Identification of research, monitoring, observing, and forecasting requirements to meet the goals described in Point 2.

As a Federal stakeholder who utilizes NOAA products and services, I am hoping that you will be willing to answer the attached questionnaire to help us provide a thorough report to Congress on the foci given above. The questionnaire consists of a set list of questions for a table of products. If you are willing to provide feedback to us we need to have the completed questionnaire returned to Murielle Gamache-Morris ([email protected]; 703-298-8230) by (date to be determined). Please feel free to call or e-mail Murielle if you have questions and we will ensure you receive a timely response. Other members of the weather, water, and climate enterprise will have a chance to provide feedback to the report via a public comment period through the Federal Register, which is the necessary procedure to follow in order to be consistent with federal law.

The public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average two hours per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other suggestions for reducing this burden to Murielle Gamache Morris ([email protected]). Notwithstanding any other provisions of the law, no person is required to respond to, nor shall any person be subjected to a penalty for failure to comply with, a collection of information subject to the requirements of the Paperwork Reduction Act, unless that collection of information displays a currently valid OMB Control Number.

Please note the following definitions that apply to Public Law 115-25:

Subseasonal: 2 weeks to 3 months

Seasonal: 3 months to 2 years

Questionnaire on NOAA Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Products

1. Can you please indicate how you use NOAA subseasonal to seasonal operational products listed in Table 2 for public planning and preparedness?

a. Can you please indicate the strengths of the NOAA subseasonal to seasonal operational products that you use?

b. Can you please indicate the weaknesses, if any, of the NOAA subseasonal to seasonal operational products that you use?

c. Can you please indicate what improvements, if any, you would like to see in NOAA’s sub-seasonal to seasonal operational products?

d. Can you please indicate which products you use and the decision contexts in which you use them?

2. If you do not currently use NOAA subseasonal to seasonal operational products but could benefit from this type of product, can you please indicate why you don’t use the products? What changes would be needed to the products in order for you to be able to use them?

3. What subseasonal to seasonal operational products would you like to see NOAA develop in the future?

Table 1: NWS Operational Subseasonal to Seasonal Products

Number	Product	Operational Source
1.	Forecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS)	Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)
2.	Forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)	EMC
3.	Week Two Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks	Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
4.	Week Three-Four Temperature Outlooks	CPC
5.	Global Tropical Hazard Outlook	CPC
6.	Week Two Hazard Outlook	CPC
7.	Week Two Probabilistic Hazard Outlook	CPC
8.	Monthly/Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks	CPC
9.	CPC Monthly/Seasonal Sea Ice Predictions	CPC
10.	CPC Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) Products	CPC
11.	El-Nino Diagnostic Discussion	CPC
12.	CMORPH Precipitation Data	CPC
13.	CPC Gauge-Based Precipitation Data	CPC
14.	CPC Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) Products	CPC
15.	CPC Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)	CPC
16.	Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks	CPC
17.	Monthly/Seasonal Drought Outlook	CPC
18.	CPC Teleconnection Indices	CPC
19.	Climate Reanalysis (R1, R2, and NARR)	CPC
20.	Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)	CPC
21.	Heating/Cooling Degree Days	CPC
22.	CPC Surface Temperature Products	CPC
23.