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pdfCrop Production
ISSN: 1936-3737
Released May 10, 2013, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Winter Wheat Production Down 10 Percent from 2012
Orange Production Unchanged from April
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.49 billion bushels, down 10 percent from 2012. Area harvested for grain is
forecast at 32.7 million acres, down 6 percent from last year. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at
45.4 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from the previous year.
Hard Red Winter production, at 768 million bushels, is down 23 percent from a year ago. Soft Red Winter, at 501 million
bushels, is up 19 percent from 2012. White Winter, at 217 million bushels, is down 2 percent from a year ago. Of the
White Winter production, 11.4 million bushels are Hard White and 205 million bushels are Soft White.
The United States all orange forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 8.60 million tons, unchanged from the previous
forecast but down 4 percent from the 2011-2012 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 138 million boxes
(6.21 million tons), is unchanged from the April forecast but down 6 percent from last season’s final utilization. Early,
midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 67.0 million boxes (3.02 million tons), unchanged from the April
forecast but down 10 percent from last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 71.0 million boxes (3.20 million
tons), is unchanged from the April forecast but down 2 percent from last season’s final utilization. Rainfall during the
month helped ease drought conditions during April. California and Texas production forecasts are carried forward from
April.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 1.60 gallons per box at
42.0 degrees Brix, down 1 percent from the April forecast and down 2 percent from last season’s final yield of
1.63 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is final at 1.51 gallons per box, down 1 percent from last season’s final
yield of 1.53 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.69 gallons per box, 3 percent lower than last year’s
final yield of 1.75 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar
to those of the past several seasons.
This report was approved on May 10, 2013.
Acting Secretary of
Agriculture
Joseph W. Glauber
2
Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Hubert Hamer
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Contents
Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2012 and Forecasted
May 1, 2013 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 5
Durum Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2012 and Forecasted
May 1, 2013 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 6
Wheat Production by Class – United States: 2012 and Forecasted May 1, 2013 ................................................................... 6
Hay Stocks on Farms – States and United States: December 1 and May 1, 2011-2013 ......................................................... 7
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2011-2012 and Forecasted
May 1, 2013 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 9
Spring Potato Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2012 and Forecasted
May 1, 2013 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Taro Area in Crop and Production – Hawaii: 2011 and 2012............................................................................................... 10
Tobacco Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ............................................. 11
Tobacco Price and Value – States and United States: 2011 and 2012 .................................................................................. 11
Tobacco Area Harvested, Yield, Production, Price, and Value by Class and Type – States and United States:
2011 and 2012 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Cotton Area Planted, Harvested, and Yield by Type – States and United States: 2011 and 2012........................................ 14
Cotton Production and Bales Ginned by Type – States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ................................................. 15
Cottonseed Production and Farm Disposition – States and United States: 2011 and 2012 .................................................. 16
Cotton Harvest Loss per Acre – Selected States: 2008-2012................................................................................................ 16
Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts – Selected States: 2008-2012 ............................................................................................ 17
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2012 and 2013 ................... 18
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 2012 and 2013 ....................... 20
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2012 and 2013 .................................................................. 22
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2012 and 2013 ....................................................................... 23
Percent of Normal Precipitation Map ................................................................................................................................... 24
Departure from Normal Temperature Map ........................................................................................................................... 24
April Weather Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 25
April Agricultural Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 25
Crop Comments .................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
3
Statistical Methodology......................................................................................................................................................... 30
Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................. 32
4
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2012 and Forecasted
May 1, 2013
State
Area harvested
2012
Yield per acre
2013
(1,000 acres)
2012
(1,000 acres)
Production
2013
(bushels)
(bushels)
2012
2013
(1,000 bushels)
(1,000 bushels)
Arkansas ................................
California ................................
Colorado .................................
Georgia ..................................
Idaho ......................................
Illinois .....................................
Indiana ...................................
Kansas ...................................
Kentucky .................................
Maryland .................................
450
310
2,170
230
740
645
300
9,100
470
210
580
320
1,770
350
740
800
420
8,100
560
245
55.0
85.0
34.0
49.0
80.0
63.0
67.0
42.0
62.0
68.0
55.0
85.0
35.0
50.0
76.0
63.0
66.0
37.0
66.0
67.0
24,750
26,350
73,780
11,270
59,200
40,635
20,100
382,200
29,140
14,280
31,900
27,200
61,950
17,500
56,240
50,400
27,720
299,700
36,960
16,415
Michigan .................................
Mississippi ..............................
Missouri ..................................
Montana .................................
Nebraska ................................
New York ................................
North Carolina ........................
North Dakota ..........................
Ohio ........................................
Oklahoma ...............................
540
345
690
2,170
1,300
85
750
730
450
4,300
550
375
950
2,040
1,300
110
920
340
600
3,800
76.0
57.0
57.0
39.0
41.0
63.0
57.0
55.0
69.0
36.0
74.0
56.0
53.0
41.0
33.0
67.0
59.0
52.0
64.0
30.0
41,040
19,665
39,330
84,630
53,300
5,355
42,750
40,150
31,050
154,800
40,700
21,000
50,350
83,640
42,900
7,370
54,280
17,680
38,400
114,000
Oregon ...................................
Pennsylvania ..........................
South Carolina ........................
South Dakota ..........................
Tennessee ..............................
Texas .....................................
Virginia ...................................
Washington ............................
Wisconsin ...............................
785
145
220
1,210
340
3,000
240
1,670
245
790
175
230
900
470
2,000
270
1,710
290
66.0
65.0
53.0
50.0
63.0
32.0
65.0
71.0
75.0
67.0
63.0
51.0
33.0
65.0
27.0
62.0
68.0
64.0
51,810
9,425
11,660
60,500
21,420
96,000
15,600
118,570
18,375
52,930
11,025
11,730
29,700
30,550
54,000
16,740
116,280
18,560
Other States 1 .........................
994
1,004
48.4
47.7
48,067
47,937
United States ..........................
34,834
32,709
47.2
45.4
1,645,202
1,485,757
1
Other States include Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Utah, West Virginia, and
Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published in the Small Grains 2013 Summary report.
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
5
Durum Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2012 and Forecasted
May 1, 2013
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun. Area harvested for the United States and remaining States will be published in Acreage
released June 2013. Yield and production will be published in Crop Production released July 2013]
State
Area harvested
Yield per acre
Production
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
(1,000 acres)
(1,000 acres)
(bushels)
(bushels)
(1,000 bushels)
(1,000 bushels)
Arizona .................................
California ..............................
Montana ................................
North Dakota .........................
104
135
515
1,330
Other States 1 .......................
18
51.2
921
United States ........................
2,102
39.0
81,956
1
64
85
95.0
105.0
28.0
32.0
105.0
105.0
9,880
14,175
14,420
42,560
6,720
8,925
Other States include Idaho and South Dakota. Individual State level estimates will be published in the Small Grains 2013 Summary.
Wheat Production by Class – United States: 2012 and Forecasted May 1, 2013
[Wheat class estimates are based on the latest available data including both surveys and administrative data. The previous end-of-year season class
percentages are used throughout the forecast season for States that do not have survey or administrative data available. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop
2012
2013
(1,000 bushels)
(1,000 bushels)
Winter
Hard red ....................................
Soft red .....................................
Hard white .................................
Soft white ..................................
1,003,856
419,801
13,250
208,295
Spring
Hard red ....................................
Hard white .................................
Soft white ..................................
Durum .......................................
504,520
8,465
28,974
81,956
Total .........................................
2,269,117
6
768,027
500,901
11,388
205,441
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Hay Stocks on Farms – States and United States: December 1 and May 1, 2011-2013
State
December 1
May 1
2011
2012
2012
2013
(1,000 tons)
(1,000 tons)
(1,000 tons)
(1,000 tons)
Alabama .........................................
Arizona ...........................................
Arkansas ........................................
California ........................................
Colorado .........................................
Connecticut ....................................
Delaware ........................................
Florida ............................................
Georgia ..........................................
Idaho ..............................................
1,385
250
1,550
1,640
1,800
55
13
400
800
2,000
1,620
240
1,150
1,900
1,600
52
17
470
1,200
2,100
269
35
340
240
230
12
4
42
169
700
215
35
170
320
360
7
3
25
250
570
Illinois .............................................
Indiana ...........................................
Iowa ................................................
Kansas ...........................................
Kentucky .........................................
Louisiana ........................................
Maine .............................................
Maryland .........................................
Massachusetts ................................
Michigan .........................................
980
1,300
2,750
3,900
3,840
540
133
360
71
1,500
1,050
900
1,840
3,000
3,400
905
127
310
81
850
300
165
500
650
775
70
35
80
15
360
155
110
290
460
470
150
22
75
12
140
Minnesota .......................................
Mississippi ......................................
Missouri ..........................................
Montana .........................................
Nebraska ........................................
Nevada ...........................................
New Hampshire ..............................
New Jersey .....................................
New Mexico ....................................
New York ........................................
3,800
1,486
5,450
4,900
4,275
830
49
81
575
1,800
2,800
1,365
4,600
3,800
3,050
650
49
119
600
1,800
900
251
1,025
1,550
1,070
238
13
12
120
327
490
200
600
860
610
140
10
15
105
150
North Carolina ................................
North Dakota ..................................
Ohio ................................................
Oklahoma .......................................
Oregon ...........................................
Pennsylvania ..................................
Rhode Island ..................................
South Carolina ................................
South Dakota ..................................
Tennessee ......................................
1,175
6,100
1,778
2,800
2,200
1,950
8
400
8,400
3,101
1,200
4,500
1,200
2,900
1,700
1,700
7
440
4,300
2,700
369
1,700
308
500
275
450
1
80
2,400
716
240
880
140
700
230
300
1
110
850
425
Texas .............................................
Utah ................................................
Vermont ..........................................
Virginia ...........................................
Washington ....................................
West Virginia ..................................
Wisconsin .......................................
Wyoming ........................................
3,800
1,420
215
2,500
1,460
953
2,653
1,300
6,100
900
200
2,300
1,200
795
1,810
950
950
350
45
900
230
285
925
400
1,650
230
36
410
180
145
410
200
United States ..................................
90,726
76,547
21,381
14,156
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
7
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8
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2011-2012 and
Forecasted May 1, 2013
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year]
Crop and State
Utilized production boxes
1
Utilized production ton equivalent
2011-2012
2012-2013
2011-2012
2012-2013
(1,000 boxes)
(1,000 boxes)
(1,000 tons)
(1,000 tons)
Oranges
Early, mid, and Navel 2
California 3 ........................................
Florida ..............................................
Texas 3 .............................................
45,500
74,200
1,108
45,500
67,000
1,260
1,820
3,339
47
1,820
3,015
54
United States ....................................
120,808
113,760
5,206
4,889
Valencia
California 3 ........................................
Florida ..............................................
Texas 3 .............................................
13,000
72,500
311
12,500
71,000
295
520
3,263
13
500
3,195
13
United States ....................................
85,811
83,795
3,796
3,708
California 3 ........................................
Florida ..............................................
Texas 3 .............................................
58,500
146,700
1,419
58,000
138,000
1,555
2,340
6,602
60
2,320
6,210
67
United States ....................................
206,619
197,555
9,002
8,597
Grapefruit
White
Florida ..............................................
5,350
5,300
228
225
Colored
Florida ..............................................
13,500
13,000
574
553
California 3 ........................................
Florida ..............................................
Texas 3 .............................................
4,000
18,850
4,800
4,100
18,300
5,500
160
802
192
164
778
220
United States ....................................
27,650
27,900
1,154
1,162
Tangerines and mandarins
Arizona 3 4 .............................................
California 3 4 ..........................................
Florida ..................................................
200
10,900
4,290
200
13,500
3,400
8
436
204
8
540
162
United States ........................................
15,390
17,100
648
710
Lemons 3
Arizona .................................................
California ..............................................
750
20,500
1,800
20,000
30
820
72
800
United States ........................................
21,250
21,800
850
872
Tangelos
Florida ..................................................
1,150
1,000
52
45
All
All
1
Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in
Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90.
2
Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines
in Texas and Temples in Florida.
3
Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.
4
Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
9
Spring Potato Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2012 and
Forecasted May 1, 2013
Area planted
State
Area harvested
Yield per acre
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
(cwt)
Production
2013
2012
2013
(cwt)
(1,000 cwt)
(1,000 cwt)
(1,000 acres)
(1,000 acres)
(1,000 acres)
(1,000 acres)
Arizona ......................
California ...................
Florida ........................
Hastings area 1 .......
Other areas 1 ..........
North Carolina ............
Texas 2 .......................
4.0
29.5
37.0
23.5
13.5
16.5
9.8
3.8
24.0
30.9
(NA)
(NA)
14.5
(NA)
3.7
29.0
36.6
23.3
13.3
16.0
9.3
3.8
24.0
29.7
(NA)
(NA)
13.5
(NA)
225
400
244
240
250
200
235
280
390
240
(NA)
(NA)
320
(NA)
833
11,600
8,917
5,592
3,325
3,200
2,186
1,064
9,360
7,128
(NA)
(NA)
4,320
(NA)
United States .............
96.8
73.2
94.6
71.0
283
308
26,736
21,872
(NA) Not available.
1
Estimates discontinued in 2013.
2
Beginning in 2013, Spring estimates included in Summer total.
Taro Area in Crop and Production – Hawaii: 2011 and 2012
State
Area in crop
2011
(acres)
Hawaii ...........................................
10
Production
2012
2011
(acres)
485
2012
(1,000 pounds)
400
4,100
(1,000 pounds)
3,500
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Tobacco Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2011 and 2012
Area harvested
State
Yield per acre
Production
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
(acres)
(acres)
(pounds)
(pounds)
(1,000 pounds)
(1,000 pounds)
Connecticut .........................................
Georgia ...............................................
Kentucky ..............................................
Massachusetts .....................................
North Carolina .....................................
Ohio .....................................................
Pennsylvania .......................................
South Carolina .....................................
Tennessee ...........................................
Virginia ................................................
2,070
11,900
77,500
570
162,300
1,600
9,700
15,500
22,000
21,900
2,090
10,000
87,200
375
166,100
1,900
9,600
12,000
23,900
23,080
1,461
2,250
2,221
1,570
1,550
2,100
2,129
1,700
2,062
2,197
1,829
2,250
2,245
1,661
2,295
2,100
2,394
2,100
2,218
2,322
3,024
26,775
172,140
895
251,565
3,360
20,655
26,350
45,363
48,125
3,822
22,500
195,800
623
381,190
3,990
22,985
25,200
53,000
53,599
United States .......................................
325,040
336,245
1,841
2,268
598,252
762,709
Tobacco Price and Value – States and United States: 2011 and 2012
State
Price per pound
2011
Value of production
2012
(dollars)
(dollars)
2011
2012
(1,000 dollars)
(1,000 dollars)
Connecticut ...........................................................
Georgia .................................................................
Kentucky ................................................................
Massachusetts .......................................................
North Carolina .......................................................
Ohio .......................................................................
Pennsylvania .........................................................
South Carolina .......................................................
Tennessee .............................................................
Virginia ..................................................................
(D)
1.740
1.934
(D)
1.679
1.690
1.710
1.660
2.157
1.685
(D)
1.950
2.085
(D)
1.980
1.890
1.892
1.940
2.259
2.029
(D)
46,589
332,993
(D)
422,380
5,678
35,314
43,741
97,859
81,089
(D)
43,875
408,217
(D)
754,836
7,541
43,487
48,888
119,745
108,752
United States 1 .......................................................
1.847
2.071
1,104,907
1,579,450
(D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.
1
Excludes estimated 2012 Connecticut Valley Shade-grown value of production for Connecticut and Massachusetts.
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
11
Tobacco Area Harvested, Yield, Production, Price, and Value by Class and Type – States and
United States: 2011 and 2012
Class, type, and State
Area harvested
2011
Yield per acre
2012
(acres)
2011
(acres)
Production
2012
2011
2012
(pounds)
(pounds)
(1,000
pounds)
(1,000
pounds)
Class 1, Flue-cured (11-14)
Georgia ..................................................................................
North Carolina ........................................................................
South Carolina .......................................................................
Virginia ...................................................................................
11,900
160,000
15,500
19,500
10,000
164,000
12,000
20,000
2,250
1,550
1,700
2,230
2,250
2,300
2,100
2,400
26,775
248,000
26,350
43,485
22,500
377,200
25,200
48,000
United States .........................................................................
206,900
206,000
1,666
2,296
344,610
472,900
Class 2, Fire-cured (21-23)
Kentucky ................................................................................
Tennessee .............................................................................
Virginia ...................................................................................
9,100
6,900
400
9,000
6,900
380
3,400
2,890
2,100
3,500
3,100
2,300
30,940
19,941
840
31,500
21,390
874
United States .........................................................................
16,400
16,280
3,154
3,302
51,721
53,764
Class 3A, Light air-cured
Type 31, Burley
Kentucky ............................................................................
North Carolina ....................................................................
Ohio ...................................................................................
Pennsylvania ......................................................................
Tennessee .........................................................................
Virginia ...............................................................................
64,000
2,300
1,600
5,000
14,000
2,000
74,000
2,100
1,900
4,700
16,000
2,700
2,000
1,550
2,100
2,200
1,610
1,900
2,050
1,900
2,100
2,450
1,810
1,750
128,000
3,565
3,360
11,000
22,540
3,800
151,700
3,990
3,990
11,515
28,960
4,725
United States .....................................................................
88,900
101,400
1,938
2,021
172,265
204,880
Type 32, Southern Maryland Belt
Pennsylvania ......................................................................
3,000
2,900
2,000
2,300
6,000
6,670
Total light air-cured (31-32) .................................................
91,900
104,300
1,940
2,028
178,265
211,550
Class 3B, Dark air-cured (35-37) .........................................
Kentucky ................................................................................
Tennessee .............................................................................
4,400
1,100
4,200
1,000
3,000
2,620
3,000
2,650
13,200
2,882
12,600
2,650
United States .........................................................................
5,500
5,200
2,924
2,933
16,082
15,250
Class 4, Cigar filler
Pennsylvania ......................................................................
1,700
2,000
2,150
2,400
3,655
4,800
Class 5, Cigar binder
Type 51, Connecticut Valley Broadleaf
Connecticut ........................................................................
Massachusetts ...................................................................
1,350
440
1,600
300
1,600
1,680
1,800
1,750
2,160
739
2,880
525
United States .....................................................................
1,790
1,900
1,620
1,792
2,899
3,405
Class 6, Cigar wrapper
Type 61, Connecticut Valley Shade-grown
Connecticut ........................................................................
Massachusetts ...................................................................
720
130
(D)
(D)
1,200
1,200
(D)
(D)
864
156
(D)
(D)
United States .....................................................................
850
565
1,200
1,841
1,020
1,040
Total cigar types (41-61) ......................................................
4,340
4,465
1,745
2,071
7,574
9,245
All tobacco
United States .........................................................................
325,040
336,245
1,841
2,268
598,252
See footnote(s) at end of table.
12
762,709
--continued
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Tobacco Area Harvested, Yield, Production, Price, and Value by Class and Type – States and
United States: 2011 and 2012 (continued)
Price per pound
pound
Class, type, and State
Value of production
production
2011
2012
2011
2012
(dollars)
(dollars)
(1,000 dollars)
(1,000 dollars)
Class 1, Flue-cured (11-14)
Georgia ....................................................................................
North Carolina ..........................................................................
South Carolina ..........................................................................
Virginia .....................................................................................
1.740
1.680
1.660
1.670
1.950
1.980
1.940
2.040
46,589
416,640
43,741
72,620
43,875
746,856
48,888
97,920
United States ............................................................................
1.682
1.983
579,590
937,539
Class 2, Fire-cured (21-23)
Kentucky ...................................................................................
Tennessee ................................................................................
Virginia .....................................................................................
2.550
2.590
2.030
2.560
2.630
1.960
78,897
51,647
1,705
80,640
56,256
1,713
United States ............................................................................
2.557
2.578
132,249
138,609
Class 3A, Light air-cured
Type 31, Burley
Kentucky ...............................................................................
North Carolina ......................................................................
Ohio ......................................................................................
Pennsylvania ........................................................................
Tennessee ............................................................................
Virginia .................................................................................
1.750
1.610
1.690
1.800
1.760
1.780
1.970
2.000
1.890
1.950
1.980
1.930
224,000
5,740
5,678
19,800
39,670
6,764
298,849
7,980
7,541
22,454
57,341
9,119
United States ........................................................................
1.751
1.968
301,652
403,284
Type 32, Southern Maryland
Pennsylvania ........................................................................
1.550
1.750
9,300
11,673
Total light air-cured (31-32) ....................................................
1.744
1.962
310,952
414,957
Class 3B, Dark air-cured (35-37)
Kentucky ...................................................................................
Tennessee ................................................................................
2.280
2.270
2.280
2.320
30,096
6,542
28,728
6,148
United States ............................................................................
2.278
2.287
36,638
34,876
Class 4, Cigar filler
Pennsylvania ........................................................................
1.700
1.950
6,214
9,360
Class 5, Cigar binder
Type 51, Connecticut Valley Broadleaf
Connecticut ...........................................................................
Massachusetts ......................................................................
6.200
6.200
6.600
6.200
13,392
4,582
19,008
3,255
United States ........................................................................
6.200
6.538
17,974
22,263
Class 6, Cigar wrapper
Type 61, Connecticut Valley Shade-grown
Connecticut ...........................................................................
Massachusetts ......................................................................
(D)
(D)
(D)
(D)
(D)
(D)
(D)
(D)
United States ........................................................................
20.873
(D)
21,290
(D)
Total cigar types (41-61) .........................................................
6.004
(D)
45,478
(D)
All tobacco 1
United States ............................................................................
1.847
2.071
1,104,907
1,579,450
(D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.
1
The 2012 price and value exclude Connecticut Valley Shade-grown.
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
13
Cotton Area Planted, Harvested, and Yield by Type – States and United States: 2011 and 2012
Type and State
Area planted
Area harvested
Yield per acre
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
(1,000 acres)
(1,000 acres)
(1,000 acres)
(1,000 acres)
(pounds)
(pounds)
Upland
Alabama .............................
Arizona ...............................
Arkansas .............................
California ............................
Florida .................................
Georgia ...............................
Kansas ................................
Louisiana ............................
Mississippi ..........................
Missouri ..............................
460.0
250.0
680.0
182.0
122.0
1,600.0
80.0
295.0
630.0
375.0
380.0
200.0
595.0
142.0
108.0
1,290.0
56.0
230.0
475.0
350.0
443.0
248.0
660.0
181.0
118.0
1,495.0
65.0
290.0
605.0
367.0
378.0
197.0
585.0
141.0
107.0
1,280.0
54.0
225.0
470.0
330.0
742
1,548
929
1,474
744
791
510
846
952
969
946
1,474
1,064
1,729
897
1,091
622
1,020
1,014
1,063
New Mexico ........................
North Carolina .....................
Oklahoma ...........................
South Carolina ....................
Tennessee ..........................
Texas ..................................
Virginia ................................
70.0
805.0
415.0
303.0
495.0
7,550.0
116.0
45.0
585.0
305.0
299.0
380.0
6,550.0
86.0
58.0
800.0
70.0
301.0
490.0
2,850.0
115.0
38.0
580.0
140.0
298.0
377.0
3,850.0
85.0
1,059
616
597
828
796
589
676
1,061
1,014
531
955
946
623
1,118
United States ......................
14,428.0
12,076.0
9,156.0
9,135.0
772
869
American Pima
Arizona ...............................
California ............................
New Mexico ........................
Texas ..................................
10.0
274.0
3.4
20.0
3.0
225.0
2.4
8.0
10.0
273.0
3.4
18.5
3.0
224.0
2.3
7.5
960
1,380
875
1,038
1,168
1,614
1,043
928
United States ......................
307.4
238.4
304.9
236.8
1,340
1,581
All
Alabama .............................
Arizona ...............................
Arkansas .............................
California ............................
Florida .................................
Georgia ...............................
Kansas ................................
Louisiana ............................
Mississippi ..........................
Missouri ..............................
460.0
260.0
680.0
456.0
122.0
1,600.0
80.0
295.0
630.0
375.0
380.0
203.0
595.0
367.0
108.0
1,290.0
56.0
230.0
475.0
350.0
443.0
258.0
660.0
454.0
118.0
1,495.0
65.0
290.0
605.0
367.0
378.0
200.0
585.0
365.0
107.0
1,280.0
54.0
225.0
470.0
330.0
742
1,526
929
1,418
744
791
510
846
952
969
946
1,470
1,064
1,658
897
1,091
622
1,020
1,014
1,063
New Mexico ........................
North Carolina .....................
Oklahoma ...........................
South Carolina ....................
Tennessee ..........................
Texas ..................................
Virginia ................................
73.4
805.0
415.0
303.0
495.0
7,570.0
116.0
47.4
585.0
305.0
299.0
380.0
6,558.0
86.0
61.4
800.0
70.0
301.0
490.0
2,868.5
115.0
40.3
580.0
140.0
298.0
377.0
3,857.5
85.0
1,049
616
597
828
796
592
676
1,060
1,014
531
955
946
624
1,118
United States ......................
14,735.4
12,314.4
9,460.9
9,371.8
790
887
14
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Cotton Production and Bales Ginned by Type – States and United States: 2011 and 2012
Type and State
Production in
480-pound net weight
bales 1
Bales ginned in
480-pound net weight
bales 3
Lint seed
ratio 2
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
(1,000 bales)
(1,000 bales)
(ratio)
(ratio)
(bales)
(bales)
Upland
Alabama .............................
Arizona ...............................
Arkansas ............................
California ............................
Florida ................................
Georgia ..............................
Kansas ...............................
Louisiana ............................
Mississippi ..........................
Missouri ..............................
685.0
800.0
1,277.0
556.0
183.0
2,465.0
69.0
511.0
1,200.0
741.0
745.0
605.0
1,297.0
508.0
200.0
2,910.0
70.0
478.0
993.0
731.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
702,350
755,050
1,226,750
599,450
136,500
2,496,950
71,050
524,900
1,173,400
779,250
788,350
557,600
1,270,100
556,300
134,600
2,947,150
73,950
485,450
935,050
774,450
New Mexico ........................
North Carolina ....................
Oklahoma ...........................
South Carolina ....................
Tennessee ..........................
Texas .................................
Virginia ...............................
128.0
1,026.0
87.0
519.0
813.0
3,500.0
162.0
84.0
1,225.0
155.0
593.0
743.0
5,000.0
198.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
62,900
1,063,450
71,450
499,400
827,700
3,577,700
140,800
39,300
1,270,100
121,000
562,500
749,000
5,061,350
180,600
United States ......................
14,722.0
16,535.0
(NA)
(NA)
14,709,050
16,506,850
American Pima
Arizona ...............................
California ............................
New Mexico ........................
Texas .................................
20.0
785.0
6.2
40.0
7.3
753.0
5.0
14.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
20,500
783,200
7,650
37,600
7,600
752,450
5,900
13,350
United States ......................
851.2
779.8
(NA)
(NA)
848,950
779,300
All
Alabama .............................
Arizona ...............................
Arkansas ............................
California ............................
Florida ................................
Georgia ..............................
Kansas ...............................
Louisiana ............................
Mississippi ..........................
Missouri ..............................
685.0
820.0
1,277.0
1,341.0
183.0
2,465.0
69.0
511.0
1,200.0
741.0
745.0
612.3
1,297.0
1,261.0
200.0
2,910.0
70.0
478.0
993.0
731.0
(NA)
(NA)
0.412
(NA)
(NA)
0.442
(NA)
0.431
0.415
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.411
(NA)
(NA)
0.439
(NA)
0.426
0.411
(NA)
702,350
775,550
1,226,750
1,382,650
136,500
2,496,950
71,050
524,900
1,173,400
779,250
788,350
565,200
1,270,100
1,308,750
134,600
2,947,150
73,950
485,450
935,050
774,450
New Mexico ........................
North Carolina ....................
Oklahoma ...........................
South Carolina ....................
Tennessee ..........................
Texas .................................
Virginia ...............................
134.2
1,026.0
87.0
519.0
813.0
3,540.0
162.0
89.0
1,225.0
155.0
593.0
743.0
5,014.5
198.0
(NA)
0.437
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.409
(NA)
(NA)
0.440
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.414
(NA)
70,550
1,063,450
71,450
499,400
827,700
3,615,300
140,800
45,200
1,270,100
121,000
562,500
749,000
5,074,700
180,600
United States ......................
15,573.2
17,314.8
(NA)
(NA)
15,558,000
17,286,150
(NA) Not available.
1
Production ginned and to be ginned.
2
Estimates available only for the 6 States shown. Based on a three-year average.
3
Equivalent 480-pound net weight bales ginned, not adjusted for cross-state movement.
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
15
Cottonseed Production and Farm Disposition – States and United States: 2011 and 2012
Farm disposition
Production
State
Sales to
oil mills
Seed for
planting 2
Other 1
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
(1,000 tons)
(1,000 tons)
2012
(1,000 tons)
(1,000 tons)
(1,000 tons)
(1,000 tons)
(1,000 tons)
(1,000 tons)
Alabama ......................
Arizona ........................
Arkansas ......................
California .....................
Florida ..........................
Georgia ........................
Kansas .........................
Louisiana .....................
Mississippi ...................
Missouri .......................
215.0
299.0
437.0
565.0
53.0
756.0
26.0
166.0
421.0
341.0
227.0
205.0
450.0
469.0
61.0
875.0
25.0
158.0
335.0
256.0
35.0
355.0
92.0
52.0
407.0
132.0
318.0
232.0
24.0
339.0
130.0
59.0
425.0
133.0
285.0
172.0
180.0
299.0
82.0
473.0
1.0
349.0
26.0
34.0
103.0
109.0
203.0
205.0
111.0
339.0
2.0
450.0
25.0
25.0
50.0
84.0
1.9
1.5
3.9
3.3
0.5
6.3
0.3
1.5
3.4
2.3
1.8
1.2
1.8
2.5
0.6
6.4
0.2
1.1
2.0
1.8
New Mexico .................
North Carolina ..............
Oklahoma ....................
South Carolina .............
Tennessee ...................
Texas ...........................
Virginia .........................
45.0
313.0
31.0
154.0
272.0
1,228.0
48.0
31.0
379.0
54.0
175.0
239.0
1,669.0
58.0
29.0
23.0
64.0
244.0
712.0
-
59.0
45.0
92.0
212.0
1,010.0
-
45.0
284.0
8.0
90.0
28.0
516.0
48.0
31.0
320.0
9.0
83.0
27.0
659.0
58.0
0.4
3.6
1.7
1.2
2.5
40.0
0.5
0.3
2.8
0.9
1.2
1.8
34.0
0.4
United States ...............
5,370.0
5,666.0
2,695.0
2,985.0
2,675.0
2,681.0
74.8
60.8
- Represents zero.
1
Includes planting seed, feed, exports, inter-farm sales, shrinkage, losses, and other uses.
2
Included in "other" farm disposition. Seed for planting is produced in crop year shown, but used in the following year.
Cotton Objective Yield Data
The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in six cotton-producing States during 2012.
Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and
measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.
Cotton Harvest Loss per Acre – Selected States: 2008-2012
State
Arkansas ..............................
Georgia ................................
Louisiana .............................
Mississippi ...........................
North Carolina ......................
Texas ...................................
16
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(pounds)
(pounds)
(pounds)
(pounds)
(pounds)
144
146
147
118
195
65
198
186
135
116
150
37
99
139
118
107
188
63
93
99
148
100
277
66
110
158
212
110
119
41
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts – Selected States: 2008-2012
[Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs
per 40 feet of row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
State and month
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(number)
(number)
(number)
(number)
(number)
Arkansas
September .......................................
October ...........................................
November ........................................
December ........................................
Final ................................................
943
810
852
846
846
1,051
814
803
794
794
911
893
897
894
894
901
845
867
868
868
841
852
856
856
856
Georgia
September .......................................
October ...........................................
November ........................................
December ........................................
Final ................................................
587
613
733
742
742
571
731
712
737
740
609
606
686
683
683
531
577
659
665
666
656
646
756
768
768
Louisiana
September .......................................
October ...........................................
November ........................................
December ........................................
Final ................................................
655
578
579
579
579
714
792
756
788
788
699
755
789
781
781
938
948
949
949
949
855
880
900
900
900
Mississippi
September .......................................
October ...........................................
November ........................................
December ........................................
Final ................................................
909
679
728
722
722
925
833
717
722
722
864
773
776
776
776
898
848
874
875
875
883
855
896
896
892
North Carolina
September .......................................
October ...........................................
November ........................................
December ........................................
Final ................................................
667
652
702
704
704
701
730
779
777
777
681
675
689
689
689
553
610
646
646
646
727
739
865
872
872
Texas
September .......................................
October ...........................................
November ........................................
December ........................................
Final ................................................
633
513
579
573
570
613
522
502
502
502
658
534
589
589
589
540
478
515
520
520
535
443
522
549
552
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
17
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States:
2012 and 2013
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop
Area planted
Area harvested
2012
2013
2012
2013
(1,000 acres)
(1,000 acres)
(1,000 acres)
(1,000 acres)
Grains and hay
Barley .................................................................................
Corn for grain 1 ....................................................................
Corn for silage ....................................................................
Hay, all ................................................................................
Alfalfa ..............................................................................
All other ...........................................................................
Oats ....................................................................................
Proso millet .........................................................................
Rice ....................................................................................
Rye .....................................................................................
Sorghum for grain 1 .............................................................
Sorghum for silage ..............................................................
Wheat, all ............................................................................
Winter .............................................................................
Durum .............................................................................
Other spring ....................................................................
3,637
97,155
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
2,760
335
2,699
1,300
6,244
(NA)
55,736
41,324
2,123
12,289
3,634
97,282
Oilseeds
Canola ................................................................................
Cottonseed .........................................................................
Flaxseed .............................................................................
Mustard seed ......................................................................
Peanuts ..............................................................................
Rapeseed ...........................................................................
Safflower .............................................................................
Soybeans for beans ............................................................
Sunflower ............................................................................
1,765.0
(X)
344
51.1
1,638.0
2.2
169.8
77,198
1,919.0
1,653.7
(X)
272
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all ...........................................................................
Upland ............................................................................
American Pima ................................................................
Sugarbeets .........................................................................
Sugarcane ..........................................................................
Tobacco ..............................................................................
12,314.4
12,076.0
238.4
1,230.1
(NA)
(NA)
10,026.0
9,820.0
206.0
1,201.1
Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Austrian winter peas ...........................................................
Dry edible beans .................................................................
Dry edible peas ...................................................................
Lentils .................................................................................
Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................
19.0
1,742.5
649.0
463.0
(NA)
19.0
1,500.0
850.0
335.0
Potatoes and miscellaneous
Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................
Hops ...................................................................................
Peppermint oil .....................................................................
Potatoes, all ........................................................................
Spring .............................................................................
Summer ..........................................................................
Fall ..................................................................................
Spearmint oil .......................................................................
Sweet potatoes ...................................................................
Taro (Hawaii) 2 ....................................................................
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1,148.3
96.8
49.8
1,001.7
(NA)
130.5
(NA)
See footnote(s) at end of table.
18
(NA)
2,901
2,611
7,620
56,440
41,988
1,751
12,701
1,191.0
77,126
1,684.0
(NA)
73.2
122.3
3,244
87,375
7,379
56,260
17,292
38,968
1,045
205
2,678
248
4,955
363
48,991
34,834
2,102
12,055
56,419
32,709
1,729.0
(X)
336
49.7
1,608.0
2.1
160.1
76,104
1,841.0
9,371.8
9,135.0
236.8
1,204.2
896.0
336.2
349.6
13.7
1,690.4
621.0
450.0
(NA)
6.1
31.9
76.0
1,132.7
94.6
48.5
989.6
20.0
126.6
0.4
71.0
--continued
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States:
2012 and 2013 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop
Yield per acre
2012
Production
2013
2012
2013
(1,000)
(1,000)
Grains and hay
Barley ................................................................................... bushels
Corn for grain ........................................................................ bushels
Corn for silage ............................................................................ tons
Hay, all ....................................................................................... tons
Alfalfa ..................................................................................... tons
All other .................................................................................. tons
Oats ...................................................................................... bushels
Proso millet ........................................................................... bushels
Rice 3 ........................................................................................... cwt
Rye ....................................................................................... bushels
Sorghum for grain ................................................................. bushels
Sorghum for silage ...................................................................... tons
Wheat, all ............................................................................. bushels
Winter ............................................................................... bushels
Durum ............................................................................... bushels
Other spring ...................................................................... bushels
67.9
123.4
15.4
2.13
3.01
1.74
61.3
15.1
7,449
28.0
49.8
11.4
46.3
47.2
39.0
45.0
Oilseeds
Canola ................................................................................... pounds
Cottonseed ................................................................................. tons
Flaxseed ............................................................................... bushels
Mustard seed ......................................................................... pounds
Peanuts ................................................................................. pounds
Rapeseed .............................................................................. pounds
Safflower ............................................................................... pounds
Soybeans for beans .............................................................. bushels
Sunflower .............................................................................. pounds
1,416
(X)
17.1
602
4,192
2,205
1,121
39.6
1,513
2,447,410
5,666.0
5,762
29,930
6,741,400
4,630
179,424
3,014,998
2,785,695
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 3 ............................................................................... bales
Upland 3 ................................................................................ bales
American Pima 3 ................................................................... bales
Sugarbeets ................................................................................. tons
Sugarcane .................................................................................. tons
Tobacco ................................................................................. pounds
887
869
1,581
29.3
35.9
2,268
17,314.8
16,535.0
779.8
35,236
32,179
762,709
Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Austrian winter peas 3 .................................................................. cwt
Dry edible beans 3 ....................................................................... cwt
Dry edible peas 3 ......................................................................... cwt
Lentils 3 ........................................................................................ cwt
Wrinkled seed peas ..................................................................... cwt
1,219
1,889
1,751
1,178
(NA)
167
31,925
10,872
5,302
406
Potatoes and miscellaneous
Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................... pounds
Hops ...................................................................................... pounds
Peppermint oil ........................................................................ pounds
Potatoes, all ................................................................................. cwt
Spring ...................................................................................... cwt
Summer ................................................................................... cwt
Fall .......................................................................................... cwt
Spearmint oil ......................................................................... pounds
Sweet potatoes ............................................................................ cwt
Taro (Hawaii) ......................................................................... pounds
1,180
1,918
87
412
283
368
427
120
209
(NA)
7,200
61,249.2
6,605
467,126
26,736
17,855
422,535
2,390
26,482
3,500
45.4
308
220,284
10,780,296
113,450
119,878
52,049
67,829
64,024
3,090
199,479
6,944
246,932
4,135
2,269,117
1,645,202
81,956
541,959
1,485,757
21,872
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1
Area planted for all purposes.
2
Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.
3
Yield in pounds.
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
19
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States:
2012 and 2013
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop
Area planted
Area harvested
2012
2013
2012
2013
(hectares)
(hectares)
(hectares)
(hectares)
Grains and hay
Barley .................................................................................
Corn for grain 1 ....................................................................
Corn for silage ....................................................................
Hay, all 2 .............................................................................
Alfalfa ..............................................................................
All other ...........................................................................
Oats ....................................................................................
Proso millet .........................................................................
Rice ....................................................................................
Rye .....................................................................................
Sorghum for grain 1 .............................................................
Sorghum for silage ..............................................................
Wheat, all 2 .........................................................................
Winter .............................................................................
Durum .............................................................................
Other spring ....................................................................
1,471,860
39,317,660
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1,116,940
135,570
1,092,260
526,100
2,526,880
(NA)
22,555,800
16,723,410
859,160
4,973,240
1,470,640
39,369,050
Oilseeds
Canola ................................................................................
Cottonseed .........................................................................
Flaxseed .............................................................................
Mustard seed ......................................................................
Peanuts ..............................................................................
Rapeseed ...........................................................................
Safflower .............................................................................
Soybeans for beans ............................................................
Sunflower ............................................................................
714,280
(X)
139,210
20,680
662,880
890
68,720
31,241,260
776,600
669,240
(X)
110,080
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 2 .........................................................................
Upland ............................................................................
American Pima ................................................................
Sugarbeets .........................................................................
Sugarcane ..........................................................................
Tobacco ..............................................................................
4,983,510
4,887,040
96,480
497,810
(NA)
(NA)
4,057,420
3,974,060
83,370
486,070
Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Austrian winter peas ...........................................................
Dry edible beans .................................................................
Dry edible peas ...................................................................
Lentils .................................................................................
Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................
7,690
705,170
262,640
187,370
(NA)
7,690
607,040
343,990
135,570
Potatoes and miscellaneous
Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................
Hops ...................................................................................
Peppermint oil .....................................................................
Potatoes, all 2 ......................................................................
Spring .............................................................................
Summer ..........................................................................
Fall ..................................................................................
Spearmint oil .......................................................................
Sweet potatoes ...................................................................
Taro (Hawaii) 3 ....................................................................
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
464,710
39,170
20,150
405,380
(NA)
52,810
(NA)
See footnote(s) at end of table.
20
(NA)
1,174,010
1,056,650
3,083,740
22,840,700
16,992,120
708,610
5,139,970
481,990
31,212,120
681,500
(NA)
29,620
49,490
1,312,810
35,359,790
2,986,210
22,767,860
6,997,900
15,769,960
422,900
82,960
1,083,760
100,360
2,005,240
146,900
19,826,170
14,096,970
850,660
4,878,540
22,832,210
13,237,010
699,710
(X)
135,980
20,110
650,740
850
64,790
30,798,530
745,030
3,792,670
3,696,840
95,830
487,330
362,600
136,070
141,490
5,540
684,090
251,310
182,110
(NA)
2,470
12,920
30,760
458,390
38,280
19,630
400,480
8,090
51,230
160
28,730
--continued
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States:
2012 and 2013 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop
Yield per hectare
Production
2012
2013
2012
2013
(metric tons)
(metric tons)
(metric tons)
(metric tons)
Grains and hay
Barley .................................................................................
Corn for grain ......................................................................
Corn for silage ....................................................................
Hay, all 2 .............................................................................
Alfalfa .............................................................................
All other ..........................................................................
Oats ....................................................................................
Proso millet .........................................................................
Rice ....................................................................................
Rye .....................................................................................
Sorghum for grain ...............................................................
Sorghum for silage ..............................................................
Wheat, all 2 .........................................................................
Winter .............................................................................
Durum .............................................................................
Other spring ....................................................................
3.65
7.74
34.47
4.78
6.75
3.90
2.20
0.84
8.35
1.76
3.13
25.54
3.11
3.18
2.62
3.02
Oilseeds
Canola ................................................................................
Cottonseed .........................................................................
Flaxseed .............................................................................
Mustard seed ......................................................................
Peanuts ..............................................................................
Rapeseed ...........................................................................
Safflower ............................................................................
Soybeans for beans ............................................................
Sunflower ...........................................................................
1.59
(X)
1.08
0.67
4.70
2.47
1.26
2.66
1.70
1,110,130
5,140,110
146,360
13,580
3,057,850
2,100
81,390
82,054,800
1,263,570
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 2 .........................................................................
Upland ............................................................................
American Pima ...............................................................
Sugarbeets .........................................................................
Sugarcane ..........................................................................
Tobacco ..............................................................................
0.99
0.97
1.77
65.59
80.51
2.54
3,769,850
3,600,070
169,780
31,965,560
29,192,300
345,960
Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Austrian winter peas ...........................................................
Dry edible beans .................................................................
Dry edible peas ...................................................................
Lentils .................................................................................
Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................
1.37
2.12
1.96
1.32
(NA)
7,570
1,448,090
493,150
240,490
18,420
Potatoes and miscellaneous
Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................
Hops ...................................................................................
Peppermint oil .....................................................................
Potatoes, all 2 .....................................................................
Spring .............................................................................
Summer ..........................................................................
Fall .................................................................................
Spearmint oil ......................................................................
Sweet potatoes ...................................................................
Taro (Hawaii) ......................................................................
1.32
2.15
0.10
46.22
31.68
41.26
47.86
0.13
23.45
(NA)
3,270
27,780
3,000
21,188,480
1,212,720
809,890
19,165,870
1,080
1,201,200
1,590
3.05
34.53
4,796,120
273,832,130
102,920,110
108,751,490
47,218,060
61,533,430
929,310
70,080
9,048,220
176,390
6,272,360
3,751,210
61,755,240
44,775,060
2,230,480
14,749,710
40,435,680
992,100
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1
Area planted for all purposes.
2
Total may not add due to rounding.
3
Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
21
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2012 and 2013
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2012-2013 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop
Citrus 1
Grapefruit ..............................................................tons
Lemons .................................................................tons
Oranges ................................................................tons
Tangelos (Florida) .................................................tons
Tangerines and mandarins ....................................tons
Noncitrus
Apples ................................................... 1,000 pounds
Apricots .................................................................tons
Bananas (Hawaii) ............................................. pounds
Grapes ..................................................................tons
Olives (California) .................................................tons
Papayas (Hawaii) ............................................. pounds
Peaches ................................................................tons
Pears ....................................................................tons
Prunes, dried (California) ......................................tons
Prunes and plums (excludes California) ................tons
Nuts and miscellaneous
Almonds, shelled (California) ........................... pounds
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..................................tons
Pecans, in-shell ................................................ pounds
Walnuts, in-shell (California) .................................tons
Maple syrup ..................................................... gallons
1
Production
2012
2013
(1,000)
(1,000)
1,154
850
9,002
52
648
1,162
872
8,597
45
710
9,061.1
60.8
7,343.4
160.0
978.3
858.2
125.0
13.2
1,890,000
34.7
302,800
470
1,908
Production years are 2011-2012 and 2012-2013.
22
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2012 and 2013
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2012-2013 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop
Citrus 1
Grapefruit .............................................................................................................
Lemons ................................................................................................................
Oranges ................................................................................................................
Tangelos (Florida) ................................................................................................
Tangerines and mandarins ...................................................................................
Noncitrus
Apples ..................................................................................................................
Apricots ................................................................................................................
Bananas (Hawaii) .................................................................................................
Grapes .................................................................................................................
Olives (California) .................................................................................................
Papayas (Hawaii) .................................................................................................
Peaches ...............................................................................................................
Pears ....................................................................................................................
Prunes, dried (California) ......................................................................................
Prunes and plums (excludes California) ................................................................
Nuts and miscellaneous
Almonds, shelled (California) ................................................................................
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .................................................................................
Pecans, in-shell ....................................................................................................
Walnuts, in-shell (California) .................................................................................
Maple syrup ..........................................................................................................
1
Production
2012
2013
(metric tons)
(metric tons)
1,046,890
771,110
8,166,480
47,170
587,860
1,054,150
791,070
7,799,070
40,820
644,100
4,110,050
55,160
6,661,820
145,150
887,460
778,580
113,400
12,010
857,290
31,480
137,350
426,380
9,540
Production years are 2011-2012 and 2012-2013.
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
23
24
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
April Weather Summary
Record-setting cold weather across the Plains and upper Midwest maintained low soil temperatures through April. The
cool soils, combined with substantial April precipitation (rain and snow) across the eastern Plains and much of the
Midwest, resulted in the slowest United States corn planting pace since 1984 - with just 5 percent of the crop in the
ground by April 28.
In fact, major flooding developed during the second half of April in the middle Mississippi Valley, with record-high water
levels observed along a significant stretch of the Illinois River. From just south of Moline, Illinois, to just north of
St. Louis, Missouri, the Mississippi River achieved one of its five highest crests on record, behind 1993 and 2008, and in
some cases, 1973 and 2001.
Cold conditions also adversely affected the Plains’ already drought-stressed winter wheat. Periodic freezes struck as far
south as the southern High Plains, contributing to sharp declines in wheat condition ratings. For example, the portion of
the Texas wheat rated in very poor to poor condition rose from 44 to 74 percent between March 17 and May 5. Wheat
condition declines were also noted during April in Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Part of the increased stress on wheat
was caused by drought intensification, particularly across the central and southern High Plains. Meanwhile, a delayed
snow-melt season and cold conditions hampered planting of spring-sown small grains across the northern Plains.
Fieldwork and crop developmental delays were not only confined to the Plains and Midwest. Significant planting delays
were also noted in the Mississippi Delta, where crops affected included cotton, rice, and soybeans. In Mississippi, planting
progress by May 5 for those three crops reached 2, 14, and 15 percent, respectively, compared to the 5-year averages of
35, 80, and 60 percent.
In contrast, very warm, mostly dry weather promoted a rapid pace of fieldwork and crop development from California
into the Southwest. However, many of those same areas - from California to the central and southern Rockies - faced
concerns about summer water supplies due to below-normal runoff and diminishing reservoir storage.
April Agricultural Summary
Near-normal April temperatures stretching from the Pacific Northwest down to and through the Southwestern and Gulf
Coast States and up to New England, provided producers in those areas ample time to prepare fields and begin planting
their 2013 crops. Conversely, cold temperatures that dipped to more than 9 degrees below average remained entrenched
over the northern Great Plains and portions of the Great Lakes region, where planting progress of row crops and small
grains lingered well behind normal. Monthly rainfall was below average in many western locations, negatively impacting
crop conditions and causing an earlier than normal start to irrigation. Elsewhere, heavy precipitation throughout portions
of the Corn Belt and Southeast hampered fieldwork.
Corn producers had planted just 2 percent of the 2013 crop by April 14, fourteen percentage points behind last year and
5 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Planting progressed slowly and seed germination was hampered as
unfavorable weather conditions lingered throughout the month. While April’s showers benefitted soil moisture levels
depleted by last year’s historic drought, wet soils and cool temperatures prevented fieldwork throughout much of the
Midwest. By April 28, five percent of the corn crop was planted, 44 percentage points behind last year and 26 percentage
points behind the 5-year average. This represents the slowest planting pace since 1984. Emergence was 2 percent
complete by April 28, twelve percentage points behind last year and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average.
With activity limited to Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas, 16 percent of this year’s sorghum crop was planted by April 7,
three percentage points behind both last year and the 5-year average. Mid-month rainfall benefitted the newly emerged
crop in portions of the Delta and Texas. In Texas, planting advanced just 5 percent in the 14 days ending April 28 as
rainfall and cold temperatures hampered fieldwork in some areas. Nationally, sorghum producers had planted 27 percent
of the crop by April 28, two percentage points behind last year but on par with the 5-year average.
As April began, oats were being sown in Nebraska, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In Texas, seeding was complete. Below
average March and early-April temperatures led to significant seeding delays in Wisconsin. By April 14, producers
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
25
Nationwide had sown 39 percent of this year’s oat crop, 33 percentage points behind last year and 10 percentage points
behind the 5-year average. Cold temperatures and above average precipitation hampered fieldwork in many areas. Seeding
in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the two largest oat-producing States, was underway by April 28, but progress remained
46 percentage points or more behind normal as producers battled wet fields and unseasonably cool temperatures.
Nationally, 47 percent of the oat crop was seeded by April 28, twenty-one percentage points behind the 5-year average.
Emergence was 35 percent complete, 12 percentage points behind the 5-year average.
Barley seeding was ahead of normal in the Pacific Northwest by mid-month, while cool weather and poor field conditions
delayed progress in Minnesota and North Dakota. Nationally, producers had sown 18 percent of this year’s crop by
April 14, nine percentage points behind last year but 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Toward month’s
end, a lack of significant spring moisture led to earlier than normal irrigation in portions of Idaho. By April 28, seeding
Nationwide had advanced to 30 percent complete, 32 percentage points behind last year and 7 percentage points behind
the 5-year average. Eight percent of the crop was emerged, 9 percentage points behind last year and slightly behind the
5-year average.
Significant soil moisture shortages throughout much of the Hard Red growing region negatively impacted winter wheat
conditions during March and early April. Freezing temperatures reached as far south as northern Texas during the first
half of the month, leaving producers assessing their crop for damage. With progress limited to mostly southern regions,
4 percent of the Nation’s winter wheat crop was headed by April 14, twenty-four percentage points behind last year and
8 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Unfavorably cool temperatures lingered throughout the month, limiting
crop development in many areas. Rainfall toward month’s end benefitted portions of the Great Plains; however crop
conditions remained mostly unchanged. Overall, 33 percent of the winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent
condition on April 28, compared with 34 percent on March 31 and 64 percent from the same time last year.
Similar to other row crops and small grains, poor weather conditions delayed the start of spring wheat seeding in portions
of the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region. By April 14, producers had sown 6 percent of the Nation’s spring
wheat crop, 27 percentage points behind last year and 7 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Fieldwork in the
Pacific Northwest advanced ahead of the average pace under near-normal temperatures and occasional precipitation;
however, seeding advanced just 6 percentage points Nationwide in the 14 days ending April 28. Toward month’s end,
producers in North Dakota took advantage of a small window of suitable weather, and began seeding their crop. By
April 28, twelve percent of the Nation’s spring wheat crop had been sown, 58 percentage points behind last year and
25 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Emergence was 3 percent complete by April 28, twenty-three percentage
points behind last year and 7 percentage points behind the 5-year average.
While cool, showery weather limited fieldwork in the upper Delta, rice producers in the lower Delta and Texas were busy
seeding this year crop as April began. Producers in the northern Sacramento Valley began seeding their rice crop during
the week ending April 7, while others were busy draining, cultivating, and leveling fields. By April 14, twenty-three
percent of the Nation’s crop had been sown, 31 percentage points behind last year and 8 percentage points behind the
5-year average. Seeding gained speed in Arkansas mid-month; however, despite steady progress, overall progress
remained well behind normal. Heavy rainfall in the Upper Coast region of Texas caused producers to spend time repairing
damaged levees during the second half of the month. By April 28, forty-four percent of the 2013 rice crop was seeded,
28 percentage points behind last year and 13 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Emergence had advanced to
24 percent complete, 35 percentage points behind last year and 11 percentage points behind the 5-year average.
With activity limited to Alabama, Arizona, California, and Texas, 5 percent of the Nation’s cotton crop was planted by
April 7, four percentage points behind last year and 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Planting was active
from central to southern Texas, while early-month rainfall slowed progress in the Blacklands and East Texas. In Georgia,
wet fields and below average soil temperatures delayed planting. Near-normal temperatures returned to much of the
Cotton Belt during the second half of the month, allowing producers time to prepare fields. Toward month’s end, freezing
temperatures led to the replanting of some fields along the Upper Coast in Texas. By April 28, producers Nationwide had
planted 14 percent of the cotton crop, 11 percentage points behind last year and 6 percentage points behind the 5-year
average.
26
Crop Production (May 2013)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Sugarbeet producers had planted 13 percent of this year’s crop by April 14, twenty-five percentage points behind last year
and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. While early-month rainfall boosted soil moisture levels and benefitted
the developing crop in Idaho, cool temperatures delayed planting in Minnesota and North Dakota. Freezing temperatures
in Idaho during the second half of April led to replanting of approximately 40 percent of the sugarbeet crop in the Magic
Valley. In Minnesota, rising temperatures toward month’s end caused a rapid snow melt, leaving producers in the Red
River Valley cautious of spring flooding. By April 28, seventeen percent of the Nation’s sugarbeet crop was planted,
72 percentage points behind last year and 36 percentage points behind the 5-year average.
Crop Comments
Winter wheat: Production is forecast at 1.49 billion bushels, down 10 percent from 2012. As of May 1, the United States
yield is forecast at 45.4 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from last year. Expected grain area is forecast at 32.7 million
acres, down 6 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter (HRW) harvested acreage is down about 14 percent from the
previous year. Soft Red Winter (SRW) harvested acreage is expected to be up 21 percent from last year. As of April 28,
thirty-three percent of the winter wheat crop in the 18 major producing States was rated in good to excellent condition,
31 percentage points below the same week in 2012. Nationally, 14 percent of the winter wheat crop was headed by April
28, fifteen percentage points behind the 5-year average pace.
In the southern Great Plains States, winter temperatures were moderate, but drought-like conditions during emergence and
most of the growing season negatively impacted winter wheat conditions. As a result, dryland yields are expected to suffer
from the lack of moisture which occurred during plant development and grain set. Several hard freezes occurred in parts
of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas during March and April, affecting earlier maturing varieties. Weather conditions
remained cooler and wetter than normal throughout April.
Cooler than normal spring temperatures coupled with higher than normal precipitation in the Corn Belt States of Illinois,
Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio hampered crop development. However, as of April 28, the winter wheat crop in the SRW
growing States was in mostly good condition.
In the Pacific Northwest, crop development was slower than normal across parts of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho due to
cooler and dryer conditions earlier this spring. Mid-April rain and snow moved across some areas bringing relief and
improving crop conditions slightly.
Durum wheat: Production of Durum wheat in Arizona and California is forecast at a collective 15.6 million bushels,
down 35 percent from last year. In California, good quality and few diseases issues were reported. Harvest is expected to
begin in Southern California by mid-May.
Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms May 1, 2013 totaled 14.2 million tons, down 34 percent from
a year ago. This is the lowest May 1 stocks level on record. Disappearance from December 1, 2012 - May 1, 2013 totaled
62.4 million tons, compared with 69.3 million tons for the same period a year earlier.
Record-low May 1 hay stocks levels were also established in Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York,
Ohio, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
With the exception of California, Colorado, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and South
Carolina, hay stocks as a percent of production decreased from last year Nationwide. Last year’s historic drought led to a
substantial decrease in hay production, and therefore beginning stocks for many States. In many areas, the limited
availability of native feedstuffs forced producers to feed their herds earlier than normal. Additionally, a cold, wet spring
has limited pasture growth causing prolonged dependence on supplemental roughage and feedstuffs in portions of the
Midwest.
Taro: Hawaii taro production for the 2012 crop year is estimated at 3.50 million pounds, down 15 percent from the
previous year but up 3 percent from the previous forecast. Area in crop, at 400 acres, is down 18 percent from 2011.
Drought conditions late in 2012 negatively impacted the taro crop. Growers reported that apple snails, feral pigs, leaf
blight, and pocket rot continued to be problems.
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Grapefruit: The 2012-2013 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.16 million tons, up 5 percent from the previous
forecast and up 1 percent from last season’s final utilization. The route survey conducted April 30-May 1 in Florida
indicated that 94 percent of the white grapefruit and 95 percent of the colored grapefruit rows were harvested. California
and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from April.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 710,000 tons, down 1 percent
from the previous forecast but up 10 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, the route survey conducted
April 30-May 1 showed that 97 percent of the Honey tangerine rows had been harvested. Arizona and California tangerine
forecasts were carried forward from April.
Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), unchanged from the April forecast but down
13 percent from last season’s final utilization. Florida’s route survey conducted April 30-May 1 showed 99 percent of the
rows had been harvested.
Florida citrus: In the citrus growing region, high temperatures reported for the month ranged from the upper 80s to lower
90s. Rainfall was generally light, becoming heavier toward the end of the month, easing drought conditions in all of the
citrus producing regions. Harvest of Valencias and grapefruit continued as the tangerine harvest neared completion.
Harvesting, fertilizer application, and general grove maintenance were the primary grove activities.
California citrus: New citrus groves were planted as the bloom continued. Mandarin trees were netted to prevent cross
pollination and ensure seedless fruit. Harvest of late Navel oranges, Valencia oranges, and lemons continued.
California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Strong winds damaged some orchards and vineyards in mid-April. Fruit continued
to develop on apricot, cherry, nectarine, peach, and plum trees. Early cherries approached harvest. Stone fruit growers
cleaned up storm damage and thinned fruit. Pears were blooming. Apple bloom finished and fruit was developing. Grapes
continued to leaf out and vines were pushing new growth. Vineyards were sprayed with fungicides and treated with sulfur
to prevent powdery mildew. Olive bloom began. Blueberries were blooming, while hot house blueberries were being
picked. Hass avocado harvest continued. Nut orchards were irrigated. Almond bloom was complete with trees leafing out
and nutlets developing well. Almond growers cleaned up branches and trees knocked down by the high winds. Walnuts
were pushing catkins and were treated for blight. Walnut growers began trapping and monitoring codling moths as they
started spray treatments for the crop. Pistachios were in full bloom and trees were pushing new growth. Pecan bloom
began.
Spring potatoes: Production for 2013 is forecast at 21.9 million cwt, down 18 percent from 2012. Planted area is forecast
at 73,200 acres, a 2 percent decrease from March intentions. Area for harvest is forecast at 71,000 acres, down 25 percent
from the previous year. The average yield forecast, at 308 cwt per acre, is up 25 cwt from 2012. Beginning in 2013, Texas
estimates for spring potatoes will be included in summer potatoes.
Tobacco: Revised United States tobacco production for 2012 totaled 763 million pounds, slightly above the January
preliminary estimate and up 27 percent from 2011. Harvested area is estimated at 336,245 acres, up slightly from the
January preliminary estimate and 3 percent above last year. Yield per acre averaged 2,268 pounds per acre, unchanged
from the January preliminary estimate and 427 pounds above 2011.
2012 Cotton final: All cotton production is estimated at 17.3 million 480-pound bales, up 11 percent from the 2011 crop.
The United States yield for all cotton is estimated at a record high 887 pounds per acre, up 97 pounds from the previous
season.
Upland cotton production is estimated at 16.5 million 480-pound bales, up 12 percent from the 2011 crop. The United
States yield for Upland cotton is estimated at a record high 869 pounds per acre, up 97 pounds from 2011. Record high
yields are also estimated in Alabama, California, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and
Virginia. In Georgia, objective yield data showed boll weights to be the highest on record. Objective yield data in
North Carolina showed a record high number of bolls per acre.
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American Pima production is estimated at 779,800 bales (480-pound), down 8 percent from 2011. The United States yield
is estimated at 1,581 pounds per acre, up 241 pounds from the previous season.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed production in 2012 totaled 5.67 million tons, up 6 percent from last year. Sales to oil mills
accounted for 53 percent of the disposition. The remaining 47 percent will be used for seed, feed, exports, and various
other uses.
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Statistical Methodology
Wheat survey procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between April 24 and May 7 to
gather information on expected yield as of May 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in three States (Kansas,
Oklahoma, and Texas) where wheat is normally mature enough to make meaningful counts. Farm operators were
interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in
selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. Counts such as
number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would
be harvested. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The
average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the
heads are clipped, threshed, and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled
to obtain current year harvesting loss.
The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 13,000 producers representing all major production areas.
These producers were selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable winter wheat acres for
harvest and yield on their operation. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide
indications of average yields.
Orange survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the May 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which
accounts for nearly 73 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the
season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative
data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and
subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous
components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer
surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys
in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Wheat estimating procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for
reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather
patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Field Office submits their
analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State
analyses to prepare the published May 1 forecasts.
Orange estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current
situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analysis to prepare
the published May 1 forecast. The May 1 orange production forecasts for California and Texas are carried forward from
April.
Revision Policy: The May 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month
throughout the growing season. End-of-season wheat estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the wheat marketing
season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks.
Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. End-of-season
orange estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The orange production estimates
are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders,
shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a
statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the May 1 production forecast and the
final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error."
Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-ofseason estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.
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The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 winter wheat production forecast is 6.8 percent. This means that chances are
two out of three that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than
6.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 11.8 percent.
Differences between the May 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 20 years have
averaged 88 million bushels, ranging from 4 million to 285 million bushels. The May 1 forecast has been below the final
estimate 11 times and above 9 times. This does not imply that the May 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to
understate or overstate final production.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 orange production forecast is 1.5 percent. However, if you exclude the
three abnormal production seasons (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is
1.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below
the final estimates by more than 1.5 percent, or 1.6 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 2.6 percent, or 2.8 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.
Changes between the May 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 134,000 tons
(149,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 5,000 tons to 369,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The May 1
forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times (below 7 times and above 10 times,
excluding abnormal seasons). This does not imply that the May 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production.
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31
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact
for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch ....................................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops Section .................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Brent Chittenden – Oats, Rye, Wheat .............................................................................................. (202) 720-8068
Angie Considine – Peanuts, Rice ..................................................................................................... (202) 720-7688
Chris Hawthorn – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet .............................................................................. (202) 720-9526
Steve Maliszewski – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum ................................................................ (202) 720-5944
Julie Schmidt – Crop Weather, Barley, Hay .................................................................................... (202) 720-7621
Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds .................................................................. (202) 720-7369
Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section ............................................ (202) 720-2127
Debbie Flippin – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries...................................... (202) 720-2157
Fred Granja – Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ............................................... (202) 720-4288
Chris Hawthorn – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits ......................................... (202) 720-5412
Dave Losh – Hops ............................................................................................................................ (360) 709-2400
Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,
Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .................................................. (202) 720-3250
Daphne Schauber – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ............................................... (202) 720-4285
Erika White – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ....................................................... (202) 720-4215
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Access to NASS Reports
For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:
All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov
Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free
subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the “Follow NASS” box under “Receive reports by Email,”
click on “National” or “State” to select the reports you would like to receive.
For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540,
7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: [email protected].
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the
basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental
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| File Type | application/pdf |
| File Title | Crop Production 05/10/2013 |
| Author | USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service |
| File Modified | 2013-05-10 |
| File Created | 2013-05-10 |