CMS-10398 #10 Budget Neutrality Form

Budget Neutrality Form

Section 1115 Medicaid Demonstrations should be budget neutral. This means the Demonstration cannot cost the federal government more than what would have otherwise been spent absent the Demonstration. In this section, the state must provide its explanation of how the Demonstration program will achieve budget neutrality and the data to support its rationale.

New Demonstration Request: The following form provides guidance on some of the most commonly used data elements for demonstrating budget neutrality. CMS is available to provide technical assistance to individual states to identify any other elements needed to demonstrate budget neutrality for their specific request. Use the accompanying Excel Workbook to submit supporting data, following the instructions below. All expenditure totals in the Excel Workbook are total computable expenditures (both federal and state shares combined), unless indicated otherwise.

1. Without- and With-Waiver Projections for Historical Medicaid Populations

1. Recent Historical Actual or Estimated Data

Provide historic data, actual or estimated, for the last five years pertaining to the Medicaid Populations or sub-Populations (Populations broken out by cost categories) in the Demonstration program.

The “Historical Data” tab from the Table Shell contains a structured template for entering these data. There are slots for three Medicaid Populations; more slots should be added as needed. The year headers “HY 1,” “HY 2,” etc., should be replaced with the actual historical years.

The Medicaid Populations submitted for budget neutrality purposes should correspond to the Populations reported in Section II. If not identical, a crosswalk must be provided that relates the budget neutrality Populations to the Section II populations. Use the tables below to provide descriptions of the populations defined for budget neutrality, and the cross-walk to Section II.

States that are submitting amendments or extension requests and that wish to add new Medicaid populations can use the “Historical Data” tab to provide 5 years of historical data for the new populations.

Population/Sub-Population Name:
Brief Description
Relationship to Section II

Population/Sub-Population Name:
Brief Description
Relationship to Section II

Population/Sub-Population Name:
Brief Description
Relationship to Section II

Population/Sub-Population Name:
Brief Description
Relationship to Section II

Explain the sources and methodology used for the actual and/or estimated historical data. If actual data have been provided, explain the source of the data (MMIS data, other state system Medicaid data, other program data, etc.) and the program(s) and source(s) of program funding that the data represent. Indicate if the data represent all Medicaid expenditures for the population. For example, are they inclusive of long-term care expenditures? Were the expenditures reported on the CMS-64? If the data provided are a combination of actual and estimated data, provide the dates pertaining to each type of data. If any of the data are estimated, provide a detailed explanation concerning how the estimated data were developed.

2. Bridge Period

Based on the ending date of the most recent year of historic data and the proposed Demonstration implementation date, a bridge period will apply to this proposal. Estimates of Demonstration costs must be trended across this bridge period when calculating the projected first year of PMPM costs without the waiver.

In the blanks below, enter the last day of the most recent historical year, and the last day of the year immediately preceding the first Demonstration Year. The number of months between these dates is the length of the bridge period. Depending on the length of the available historical data series and data quality, each demonstration population could have its own unique bridge period.

Enter the number of months in the bridge period in the “WOW” tab of the Excel Workbook, in the grayed cell under “MONTHS OF AGING.” The spreadsheet is programmed to project Demonstration Year PMPM expenditures and member month totals using historical trend rates and the length of bridge period, and assumes that the same bridge period applies to all calculations. Applicants should feel free to alter these programming features as needed.

Demonstration Bridge Period: to

3. Without-Waiver Trend Rates, PMPM costs and Member Months with Justification

The WOW tab of the Excel Workbook is where the state displays its projections for what the cost of coverage for included Medicaid populations would be in the absence of the demonstration. A block of cells is provided to display the WOW estimates for each Medicaid population specified. Next to “Pop Type,” the correct option should be selected to identify each group as a Medicaid population.

The workbook is programmed to project without-waiver (WOW) PMPM expenditures and member months using the most recent historical data, historical enrollment and per capita cost trends, and the length of bridge period specified. CMS policy is to use the lower of the state’s historical trends and President’s Budget trends to determine the WOW baseline.

Note that the workbook includes a projected Demonstration Year 0 (DY 00), which is an estimate of the last full year immediately prior to the projected demonstration start date. DY 00 is included to provide a common “jumping off point” for both WOW and with waiver (WW) projections.

4. Risk

CMS will provide technical assistance to states to establish an appropriate budget neutrality methodology for their demonstration request. Potential methodologies include:

PER CAPITA METHOD: The state will be at risk for the per capita (PMPM) cost of individuals served by the Demonstration, to the extent these costs exceed those that would have been incurred absent the Demonstration (based on data shown and to be agreed to above). The state shall be at risk to repay CMS for the federal share of any costs in excess of the "Without Demonstration" cost, based on historical data shown above, which are the sum of the estimated PMPM costs times the number of member months by Population. The state shall not be at risk for the number of member months of participation in the Demonstration, to the extent that they may increase above initial projections.

AGGREGATE METHOD: The state will be at risk for both the number of member months used under the Demonstration, as well as the per capita cost for Demonstration participants; to the extent these exceed the "without waiver" costs and member months that are agreed to based on the data provided above.

5. Historical Medicaid Populations: With-Waiver PMPM Cost and Member Month Projections

The “WW” tab of the Excel Workbook is for use by the State to enter its projected WW PMPM cost and member month projections for historical populations. In general, these can be different from the proposed without-waiver baseline. If the State's demonstration is designed to reduce PMPM costs, the number of member months by category and year should be the same here as in the without-waiver projection. (This is the default formulation used in the Excel Workbook.)

6. Justification for With-Waiver Trend Rates, PMPM Costs and Member Months

The State must provide below a justification for the proposed with-waiver trend rate and the methodology used by the State to arrive at the proposed trend rate, estimates of PMPM costs, and number of member months.

2. Cost Projections for New Populations

This section is to report cost projections for new title XIX Populations. These could be Populations or sub-Populations that will be added to the state's Medicaid program under the Demonstration, including "Expansion Populations" that are not provided for in the Act but are created under the Demonstration.

In the table below, list all of the New Populations and explain their relationship to the eligibility groups listed in Section II.

Population Name		Brief Description	Cross-Walk to Section II

Justification for New Populations' Trend Rate, PMPM and Member Month Projections

The state must provide below a justification for the proposed trend rate, estimates of PMPM costs, and number of member months for new populations, including a description of the data sources and estimation methodology used to produce the estimates. Historical data provided to support projections for new populations can be displayed in the Excel Workbook’s Historic Data tab.

Some state proposals may include populations that could be made eligible through a State plan amendment, but instead will be offered coverage strictly through the Demonstration. These populations are referred to as “hypotheticals” and CMS is available to provide technical assistance to states considering whether a Demonstration population could be treated as a hypothetical population.

3. Disproportionate Share Hospital Expenditure Offset

Is the state is proposing to use a reduction in Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) Claims to offset Demonstration costs in the calculation of budget neutrality for the Demonstration?

Yes No

If yes, the state must provide data to demonstrate that the combination of Demonstration expenditures and the remaining DSH expenditures will not exceed the lower of the state’s historical DSH spending amount or the state's DSH Allotment for each year of the Demonstration. The state may provide Adjusted DSH Claim Amounts if additional DSH claims are pending due to claims lag or other reasons.

In the DSH tab of the Excel Workbook, enter the state’s DSH allotments and actual DSH spending for the five most recent Federal fiscal years in Panel 1. All figures entered should represent the federal share of DSH allotments and spending.

Provide an explanation for any Adjusted DSH Claim Amounts:

In Panel 2 of the Excel Workbook, enter projected DSH allotments for the federal fiscal years that will overlap the proposed Demonstration period, and in the following row, enter projections for what DSH spending would be in the absence of the demonstration. All figures entered should represent the federal share of DSH allotments and spending.

The Excel Workbook is set up to allow for the possibility that Demonstration Years will not coincide with federal fiscal years. If this is the case, and the Demonstration is proposed to last for five full years, then the Demonstration will be in existence for parts of six federal fiscal years. FFY 00 is the federal fiscal year during which the Demonstration is proposed to begin, and FFY 05 is the federal fiscal year that contains the Demonstration’s proposed end date. CMS encourages states that use DSH diversion in their budget neutrality model to define Demonstration Years so that they align with the Federal fiscal years. (If Demonstration Years do align with Federal fiscal years, it is not necessary to populate the column for FFY 00.)

In Panel 3 of the Excel Workbook, the rows are set up to be used as follows. All amounts entered in Panel 3 are Federal share.

• State DSH Allotment: Formulas in the Excel Workbook automatically enter the same DSH allotment projects as are shown in Panel 2.

• State DSH Claim Amount: Enter the amounts that the state projects will be spent on DSH payments to hospitals for each federal fiscal year that overlaps with the proposed demonstration period.

• Maximum DSH Allotment Available for Diversion: If the state wishes to propose a dollar limit on the amount of potential DSH spending that is diverted each year, enter those amounts here. If no such limit is proposed, leave blank.

• Total DSH Allotment Diverted: The Excel Workbook is structured to populate the cells in this row from amounts entered in Panel 4. CMS’s default assumption is that DSH diversion spending will align with the Federal fiscal year DSH allotments based on date of service. The Excel Workbook allocates DSH diversion spending from one or two overlapping Demonstration Years to each Federal fiscal year DSH allotment.

• DSH Allotment Available for DSH Diversion Less Amount Diverted: This row provides a check to ensure that diverted DSH spending does not exceed the Maximum DSH Allotment amount specified by the State. If no Maximum DSH Allotment, delete the formulas in this row.

• DSH Allotment Projected to be Unused: This row provides a check to ensure that the combination of diverted DSH spending plus DSH payments to hospitals does not exceed the DSH allotment each year.

Panel 4 of the Excel Workbook provides space for the state to indicate amounts of DSH diversion spending are planned for each Demonstration Year, and specify how much of that amount is to be assigned to the overlapping Federal fiscal years. DSH diversion spending is entered here as a total computable expenditures. An FMAP rate is needed for each total computable spending amount entered to enable it to be converted into a federal share equivalent that will appear in Panel 3. The amounts shown in the Total Demo Spending From Diverted DSH row automatically appear in the Summary tab in the Without Waiver panel.

Explanation of Estimates, Methodology and Data

4. Summary of Budget Neutrality

The Excel Workbook’s Summary tab shows an initial assessment of budget neutrality for the Demonstration. Formulas are included that reference cells in the WOW, WW, and DSH tabs so that projected WOW and WW expenditures for each category of expenditure appear in tabular form and can be summarized by Demonstration Year, and for the entire proposed duration of the Demonstration. The Variance shown for the entire duration of the demonstration must be non-negative.

As indicated above, spending estimates for Other WOW Categories and Other WW Categories should be entered directly into the Summary tab where indicated.

5. Additional Information to Demonstrate Budget Neutrality

Provide any additional information the State believes is necessary for CMS to complete its analysis of the budget neutrality submission.

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