0007-stocks-18-SSB

1Supporting Statement

STOCKS REPORTS

OMB No. 0535-0007

B. COLLECTION OF INFORMATION EMPLOYING STATISTICAL METHODS

1. Describe (including a numerical estimate) the potential respondent universe and any sampling or other respondent selection method to be used. Data on the number of entities (e.g., establishments, State and local government units, households, or persons) in the universe covered by the collection and in the corresponding sample are to be provided in tabular form for the universe as a whole and for each of the strata in the proposed sample. Indicate expected response rates for the collection as a whole. If the collection has been conducted previously, include the actual response rate achieved during the last collection.

The Off-Farm Grain Stocks surveys provide detailed estimates of grains, oilseeds, and pulse crops stored in any commercial facility off the farm.

Off-farm stocks surveys are conducted in every State for barley, canola, corn,

flaxseed, mustard seed, oats, rapeseed, safflower, sorghum, soybeans, sunflowers, Austrian winter peas, chickpeas (garbanzos), dry edible peas, and lentils and wheat. Grain stocks frequently move to areas other than where produced, thus requiring coverage by all States to fully account for all off-farm stocks. Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota are the only States estimating rye stocks. The target population is all commercial grain storage operations, including grain and oilseed processing plants, terminals, and any other facilities that store grains, oilseeds, and pulse crops (excluding peanuts and rice) that would not be classified as a farm. Separate rice stocks surveys are conducted in Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas. Peanut stocks are estimated for the U.S. only.

The off-farm stocks survey is an enumeration of all known commercial grain storage facilities. In December 2017 there were 8,701 facilities with approximately 10.7 billion bushels of storage capacity. An effort is made to obtain a report from all facilities. Reports of stock holdings are normally received from operations covering about 90 percent of the capacity. Estimates are made for missing facilities to make the survey complete. Many of these facilities are operated by parent companies where one respondent will report for multiple facilities.

The Potato Stocks Survey is a stratified simple random sample of growers with on-farm storage capacity and a census of off-farm agribusinesses who store, ship or process potatoes. The Peanut Stocks Survey is a census of agribusinesses that store or process peanuts. The off-farm Rice Stocks Survey is a census of mills, port facilities and warehouses. The Rice Stocks – Transport Survey is of the major transporters of rice (includes barge, rail cars, semi-trucks, etc.). The off-farm Hops Stocks Brewery Survey is a complete census of all large national and regional breweries. The off-farm Hops Stocks Dealer Survey is a complete census of all dealers and the off-farm Hop Stocks Grower Survey is a census of all large growers.

Response rates for 2017 are in the following table.

2. Describe the procedures for the collection of information including:

• statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection,

• estimation procedure,

• degree of accuracy needed for the purpose described in the justification,

• unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures

Reports of grain and oilseed stock holdings are normally received from operations covering about 90 percent of total capacity. Estimates are made for missing facilities to make the survey complete. Off-farm survey data are reviewed at the State and national levels for reasonableness, consistency with historical estimates, and current crop size. After estimates are made for on-farm and off-farm, the two are combined and evaluated using a balance sheet approach. This method utilizes other sources of data to check the reasonableness of the stocks estimates. Estimates of production, imports, exports, crushings, milling, and all other recorded uses of grain and oilseeds are reviewed to make sure beginning stocks, production, utilization, and ending stocks are within reasonable balance and present the best possible estimate of all stocks. Stocks for the commodities covered by the other voluntary surveys are enumerated in the same manner.

Potatoes are grown in every State in the U.S. with NASS making production estimates in 23 States. Potatoes are harvested throughout the year somewhere in the country. USDA covers annual production in three seasonal groupings: spring, summer, and fall. Most of the large fall crop is stored in temperature- and humidity-controlled cellars to be held for sale through the late fall, winter, and spring months.

For peanuts, survey data are collected from shellers, blanchers, processors, and warehouses directly by NASS headquarters through mail questionnaires and electronic data reporting (EDR). The Peanut Stocks survey is a mandatory survey. Respondent businesses are accustomed to the survey and Headquarters receives complete cooperation.

Hop stocks that are held by growers and dealers are only collected in six estimating states Michigan, New York, Ohio, Washington, Idaho and Oregon

Samples of the stocks questionnaires are attached in the ROCIS system.

Survey indications are subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. These errors are not measured directly but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

3. Describe methods to maximize response rates and to deal with issues of non-response. The accuracy and reliability of information collected must be shown to be adequate for intended uses. For collections based on sampling a special justification must be provided for any collection that will not yield "reliable" data that can be generalized to the universe studied.

Reports from central accounting offices of large off-farm grain companies account for about two-thirds of total U.S. capacity. Combining the on-farm and off-farm data provides very reliable indications.

The due date that appears on a questionnaire is related to the reference period and the amount of time we are allotted to collect the data. The surveys that are included in this docket vary in frequency from monthly, quarterly, seasonal, to annual. For the more frequent surveys NASS puts more emphasis on the due dates shown on the questionnaires, so that data are received in time to be key-entered, edited, and summarized, and for estimates to be generated and prepared for publishing within the allotted time. As a part of NASS’s mission statement we are required to publish accurate, useful data in a timely manner. In order for these data to be useful to the public it sometimes requires a very frequent survey, due to the speed at which the data can change.

4. Describe any tests of procedures or methods to be undertaken.

Testing of questionnaires is conducted periodically in small focus groups.

5. Provide the name and telephone number of individuals consulted on statistical aspects of the design and the name of the agency unit, contractor(s), or other person(s) who will actually collect and/or analyze the information for the agency.

The survey design for each State is determined by the Sampling, Editing, and Imputation Methodology Branch, (Branch Chief is Mark Apodaca (202) 690-8141 and Sampling Frame Development Section Head is Peter Quan (202) 720-5269) in conjunction, Sampling works with Summary and Estimation, and Disclosure Methodology Branch, (Branch Chief is Jeff Bailey (202) 690-8141).

Data collection is carried out by NASS Regional Field Offices the Director is Jay Johnson, (202) 720-3638. Survey data are also reviewed and summarized by the Regional Field Offices. Publications are released from the Regional Offices and Headquarters.

The NASS Survey Administration Branch in Headquarters is responsible for coordination of sampling, questionnaires, data collection, and other Field Office support. Branch Chief is Gerald Tillman, (202) 720-3895.

There are several NASS commodity statisticians in Headquarters Crops Branch, Statistics Division, who work on the stocks surveys. They are responsible for survey administration, support for FO activities, national summary data, and publication (Crops Branch Chief is Lance Honig (202) 720-2127).

December 2018

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